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Data Center Migration Project

Student Name

Course Instructor

Institutional Affiliation

Date

Overall project budget

Task Name

Planned Value

Earned Value

Actual Cost to Date

Start Date

Estimated completion Date

Actual Completion Date

Planning

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vendor and supplier acquisition

System and environmental

Assessment

Organization and staff assessments

Employee Training

Migration Process

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hiring contractors

Data Migration Costs

Labor Costs

Employee training costs

After Migrations

 

 

 

 

 

 

System Audits

System tests and approval

Project requirements

The project requirement will be divided into the following areas:

Financial requirements: The financial resources will not require any changes since the estimated budget was already approved to meet the required needs and is within the financial budget and expectation of the business.

Human resources: There will be a change in the training resources needed: There is a new development in terms of the levels of training needed by the employees. The new trainings will focus on team aspects to ensure the new teams consisting of various employees from various departments can work together as a team. The human resources will also change due to the acquisition of data analysis team: the new team will be responsible for data cleaning to ensure the organization does not have redundant data and all the relevant data are converted into the necessary format to ensure compatibility. The new team will also be responsible for data analysis before transferring them to the new cloud systems.

There is also be a change in the vendors and suppliers required: the new vendors are required to provide training resources the company currently lacks. This is due to the new demand for employee training simulator to give employees a new glimpse of the new operation system to ensure success. They will maintain their resources provision roles and also provide any new resources that may be needed to ensure compatibility and system efficiency.

Cost management plan

The costs currently available are projected to meet the demands however in case of any changes there are various cost management plans. One of them include reduction in overtime payments by engaging other employees in other departments to help with other tasks such as data cleaning, editing and verification (Jayaraman, 2016). However, the organization will maintain costs for certain system such as software and hardware to ensure authenticity.

The second costs management plan is reduction in project duration by increasing the size of the project team to ensure costs due to project duration are minimized (Jayaraman, 2016). This is also necessary to ensure the organization saves certain costs in the process of data migration.

In case the costs exceed and there are new emergencies that require additional costs. There are three financing method namely equity, loans and organization capital (Jayaraman, 2016)

. In case of shortage, the organization can sue the loans or its own cash to finance the sudden and new changes and financial requirements.

Risk management plan

The migration risk management plan will ensure the potential risks are minimal and the changes of occurrences are minimized. Here is a framework to manage and mitigate the risks.

Challenge

Sources

Mitigation

Migration underestimation

Limited budgeting, too much time on the budget, inflation, limited resources to accomplish the task in time.

Contingency financial sources for resource acquisition.

Project milestone and schedule to ensure every activity is completed in time

Data loss

Data redundancy, employee omission and scattered data

Data cleansing, analysis and mapping

System errors during data migration

Improper system phasing, multiple system operations and system age.

Data control software that will manage the migration process from old to new system

Date incompatibility

Wring data format, omission of certain content, skipping certain procedures and poor data quality

Data test software to ensure the new data and system meets the anticipated benefits.

System crash and errors

Lack of skills and knowledge

System.

Employee training and certification

Employee new staff to manage the system.

System audits

Ensure uniform communication to avoid confusion.

Communications challenges

Lack of uniform communication platform

Develop a uniform communication platform

Divide projects into teams for easy communication

Review meetings to ensure the milestones are achieved and the data is correct.

Risk response plan

To avoid the risks within the pan, the project already has effective mitigation measures. However, in case of any risks the organization has a response plan based on the following criteria.

Risk

Source

Response plan

Limited resources

Time lapse and extension

Lack of expertise and human resources

Inflation

Data and process underestimation

Employee increased turn over limited knowledge

Project budget adjustments to meet the new costs.

New changes

New data

Need for system updates

Technology changes

Market changes

System diagnosis and trouble shooting

Change in system and project scope

Changi in budgeting and provision of additional finance

Time lapse

System errors and unresponsiveness

Employee delay due to lack of skills

Data errors

System incompatibility

Hire expert

Outsource some migration procedures and processes

Introduce new workflow and processes

Risk mitigation plan

The risk mitigation plans are the procedures currently implemented to avoid the occurrence of risks:

Review meetings: One of the mitigation plans include the weekly, monthly group and managers’ meetings. The purpose of these meetings is to review the project success and development to avoid risks of delays or certain errors (Ward & Chapman, 2018). These meetings also focus on the potential errors during the project and implementing instant mitigation measures.

Data migration checklists: The checklist contain issues related to data formatting, cleansing, testing before migrating to a new system. It also covers any errors that may occur ad how to resolve them (Ward & Chapman, 2018). Finally, it contains all the essential elements that must be included in the process to ensure system compatibility and efficiency.

Project milestone and KPIS: this covers the project objectives and the activities to be performed under every milestone and the duration required to accomplish the project (Ward & Chapman, 2018). This minimizes system risks, data omission and any related errors.

Change management process

The change management process is conducted through various adjustments. This include change in the workflow to cover the present changes. Teamwork which makes implementing the changes efficient and easy.

Budget and milestone changes: Whenever there are new changes, the project budget, milestones will also be adjusted to ensure the new changes reflect in the review meetings and are implemented.

Strategic communication: Every change is a subject of communication. The changes will include minor changes within the team to ensure that making such changes dies not affect other teams and activities.

Managing project RAID

The risks will be subject to the mitigation plans to avoid occurrence. In case of the occurrence then they will be a part of the response plan. Every assumption will be subjected to a test to ensure they do not have effect on system operations and data migrations. The assumptions will be captured and treated as potential risks to avoid being ignored. The dependencies and issues will be reviewed in the weekly meetings and be a part of the communication process to ensure the details are not left. The dependencies will be shared amongst the teams to avoid potential errors that may spread across the teams.


References

Jayaraman, R. (2016). Project cost control: a new method to plan and control costs in large projects. Business process management journal.

Ward, S., & Chapman, C. (2018). Transforming project risk management into project uncertainty management. International journal of project management21(2), 97-105.

Paper

Document:

DevOps Engineer ( 2 Copies )
Java 2 ( 2 Copies )
Data Engnieer ( 2 Copies )
phython devleoper ( 1 Copies )
Business Analyst ( 1 Copies )

Paper

When asked a question like, “How does one apply Data Science?”, we as the subject matter expert (SME) are given the chance to impart specific knowledge to the person asking the question. For the discussion forum, identify a specific function that a data scientist might perform as part of working with data.

Your initial response is a minimum of  200 words. There should be a minimum of one reference supporting your observations. 

2 Responses (each responses should be Minimum 100 words)

Notes:

1.   Please refer to the discussion forum rubric on the course information tab for this assignment.
2.   Initial discussion board posts are due by Wednesday (mmddyyyy) at 11:59 pm (EST) and responses to two of your classmates are due by Sunday (mmddyyyy) at 11:59 pm (EST).
3.    Each week to earn full points on the discussion forums, make sure to include outside sources to support your discussion.
4.    All work is to be original.

Paper

CPT Employer Evaluation Form

WORK PERFORMANCE

Academic Knowledge: Employee has sufficient academic knowledge to contribute to the organization. Understands concepts and apply knowledge on the job.
COMMENTS:

Technical Skills: Employee has technical skills appropriate to the level in school and job requirements.
COMMENTS:

Planning and Organization: Employee sets realistic goals. Organize and prioritizes assigned tasks. Able to manage multiple assignments.
COMMENTS:

Quality of Work: Employee completes tasks accurately and thoroughly. Work reflects neatness, attention to detail, and compliance to company standards.
COMMENTS:

Initiative: Employee consistently demonstrates a proactive nature. Takes appropriate action without constant direction, motivates self and knows when to seek prior approval.
COMMENTS:

Communication: Employee expresses verbal and written ideas effectively. Interacts well with others and resolves conflicts.
COMMENTS:

Analysis and Judgment: Employee demonstrates the ability to analyze and discern facts. Applies skills appropriate for carrying out tasks and solving problems. Makes sound decisions.
COMMENTS:

Professionalism: Employee exhibits self-confidence and maturity. Projects a professional appearance. Displays a willingness to learn. Accepts suggestions and constructive feedback.
COMMENTS:

Accountability: Employee is punctual in attending work, meetings and appointments. Is reliable and follows through in an appropriate and dependable manner.
COMMENTS:

OVERALL EVALUATION

Overall Rating: Please provide an overall rating of your Employee.
COMMENTS:

Employee excels at: Timing, knowledge of academic study, ORGANIZATION and planning.
Employee needs to work on: Professional appearance
COMMENTS:

What do you think the employee could have done differently to make the experience even more meaningful?
COMMENTS:

Will this student be hired as a permanent employee?
If yes, What is the job title?

paper

Handout and Rubric Beating the Competition BUSU 630

Assignment #4

Due Week 8

This will be the best work in the class. All of the instructor comments on previous papers should be included in this work. Instructors often look back at your previous papers to be sure that you have learned and applied from the suggestions in previous papers.

Students will prepare a graduate level analysis to show a deep understanding about how to beat the competition using operations and supply chain. This is the most important paper in the class and should demonstrate all that have learned during this course. You may need to make this paper longer than three to five pages to make your case. The Title page and Reference Page is not included in the page count.

Remember this paper is not a book report of what you have read, or a book report on a company, but a direct application of what you have read and learned in this class to show how a company can beat the competition by using operations and supply chain tools.

This paper is designed for you to demonstrate through application and analysis the key points you have learned in this class and how you will apply these key points.

#1 Choose a company: you can use a small or a medium sized company, it is not recommended that you use the same company that you have used for papers in this class. However, if you use the same company for this paper that you have analyzed for other papers in this class, you may not use the same data or analyses for this paper that you have used in other papers for this assignment. You are in danger of failing this paper (and this class) if you duplicate your analyses from other papers. Remember it is a violation of academic integrity to use material from one class or one assignment for another.

#2 Analyze: the competition for a company you have chosen. Through research get to know the industry or field that your company occupies. Find out who is doing well in that field? Who is not? Why? What are the core competencies for your chosen organization? What do they do better than anyone else in their industry? As part of this paper you must identify the competition (using a chart?) and then show the strengths and weaknesses of each of the competition to look for a window of opportunity for the company you have chosen (all of this needs to be cited with graduate level sources).

#3 Create: three to five specific examples of how your chosen company can beat their competition using information that you have directly learned in this class about operations and supply chain. Use the concepts AND THE analytical models provided to gain this advantage. These recommendations need to be backed up with analysis, citations from the text book and independent research. The recommendations need to be innovative and interesting and very well thought out and written.

#4 Write: like a graduate student, APA, sources referenced, perfect grammar. Clear strong declarative sentences. Use very few pronouns. Include a strong reference section from the text book and additional resources from your research. Be sure to use APA headings (see below).

#5. Question: Describe the powerful questions that you will ask and answer in this quantitative and qualitative analysis to gain competitive analysis through operations.

#6. Class Concepts: You should include at a minimum three to five of the following concepts in your paper (See Rubric below to see how these class concepts (a – g) are to be woven through your paper):

a) Introduction to operations and the global supply chain

b) Foundations of operations

c) Process innovation and mapping

d) Managing systems in the supply chain

e) Integrating relationships with suppliers and customers

f) Planning supply chain innovation including technology

g) Managing for change and innovation to create value

Business papers always use headings, and graduate students need to use APA headings:


https://services.umassglobal.edu/cii/apa-7/index.html#/

Rubric used for grading Assignment #4 BUSU630:

Evaluation Criteria

Beating the Competition

Exemplary

250

Proficient

210

Developing

190

Emerging


170


Key Insights

63

Provides accurate and clear description of a specific company and of the competition to that company. Identifies an option for that company to beat their competition based upon concepts learned in this class. Accurately and comprehensively discusses a valid and researched recommendation. Provides a clear picture of the ways to beat the competition in a specific industry using operations and supply chain.

53

Provides a fairly accurate and clear description of the specific company and the competition. Fairly comprehensively and accurately discusses a valid recommendation Provides a fairly clear picture of the context for the opportunity using operations and supply chain concepts.

48

Provides somewhat accurate and clear description of the company and the competition. Somewhat accurately discusses the specific recommendations that would bring competitive advantage. Provides some context for the opportunity using operations and supply chain concepts.

42 or below

Provides limited or unclear definitions and/or descriptions of the company or the competition. Provides little to no context for the opportunity for gaining competitive advantage.

Application

63

Clearly identifies and discusses specific recommendations based upon graduate level sources, research and analysis. Clearly describes how the context and trends within the industry and the process will enhance or detract for beating the competition. Shows a clear application and understanding of the tools available in supply chain and operations.

53

Fairly clearly identifies and discusses specific recommendations based upon graduate level sources, research and analysis. Somewhat clearly describes how the context and the trends within the industry and the process will help to beat the competition. Fairly clearly describes application and understanding of the tools available in supply chain and operations.

48

Somewhat clearly identifies and discusses specific recommendations based upon some graduate level sources, research and analysis. Somewhat describes how the context and the trends within the industry and the process will beat the competition. Somewhat shows a clear application and understanding of the tools available in supply chain and operations.

42 or below

Limited if any identification and discussion of actions in terms of specifics Shows lots of opinion but little data. Limited if any description of how recommendations are data driven, Shows a limited application of the tools available in supply chain and operations. May use WIKI sources which are not graduate level.

Critical Analysis

62

Consistently employs critical analysis in discussing the key insights about the industry, company and the process under review. Accurately links theory and course concepts with analysis, and application. Uses the text book and at least four other business sources.

The paper clearly shows how to beat the competition using clear and data driven decision making and graduate level resources.

52

Fairly consistently employs critical analysis in discussing the key insights gained about the industry, company and the industry. Fairly accurately links theory and course concepts with analysis, and application. Uses the text book and at least three other business sources. Somewhat shows how to beat the competition. The recommendations are based upon data and sources.

47

Somewhat employs critical analysis in discussing the key insights gained about the industry, company and the industry. Somewhat accurately links theory and course concepts with analysis and application. Uses the text book and at least two other business sources. The relevance of the ways to beat the competition are somewhat clear but an attempt was made.

43 or below

Limited if any critical analysis in discussing the insights gained and their understanding of company, industry and/or competition. Limited if any connection made between theories, course concepts and application this company and ways to use operations and supply chain to beat the competition. Uses the text book and at least two other business sources.

Writing Mechanics

62

The paper is logical, well written, and the required length. Spelling, grammar and punctuation are accurate. Consistently uses sources (textbook and assessments) to support discussion and analysis. APA formatting standards are followed; citations and reference page is correct.

52

The paper is logical, well written, and is the required length. Minor errors in spelling, grammar and/or punctuation. Uses sources (textbook and assessments) to support discussion and analysis. APA standards are followed with a few minor errors.

47

The paper is somewhat logical and well written; may be 10% too long or short. Some errors in spelling, grammar and/or punctuation. Somewhat uses sources (textbook and assessments) to support discussion and analysis. APA standards are somewhat followed but with numerous errors.

43 or below

The paper lacks clarity and may be confusing; may be 15% too long or short. Numerous errors in spelling, grammar and/or punctuation. Limited if any use of sources (textbook and assessments) to support discussion and analysis. Limited if any adherence to APA standards.

Paper

  • Guidelines for organization:
  • You are the Senior VP of an HR department with 25 employees that serve an organization that has 1000 full and part time employees. Right now, your department has functional “silos” (Recruiting department, Compensation /Benefits department, Employment department, etc.). What changes would you make in structure (org chart) and what programs would you push for so that your HR department is seen as innovative, creative and the “people’s partner”? Be sure to include multiple references to current research in the field of Human Resources. Also, include sections in the final paper which discuss the latest research in talent acquisition, retention, and the compensation and benefits.
    • Requirement: Prepare the final paper using the following guidelines:
  • 9 pages (including bibliography and title page), typed, double-spaced, Times New Roman font, using APA standard
  • Title page, including title of paper, your name, course name and course number, date of submission
  • A reference page
  • A minimum of 10 references are required, including the text, the Holy Bible, books and articles from academic sources (Net Library), and other periodicals.

Paper

 

Network Management Paper: In this paper, you will research and report on network management tools associated with (1) policy compliance, (2) bandwidth management, and (3) asset management. Compare and contrast, at least, one tool for each of the three network management areas. What is the best tool for each area? Can one tool be used for managing more than one area? I.e, can a single tool be used for asset management, policy compliance, or bandwidth management? Why or why not? 

Required Section Headings:

  • Introduction
  • Policy Compliance Tool
  • Bandwidth Management Tool
  • Asset Management Tool
  • Tool Comparison
  • Summary/Conclusion

Remember to support your statements with factual information (i.e., attribution/citations). In addition, material from the course textbook or the textbook’s author(s) cannot comprise more than 25% of the sourced and/or quoted material.

The paper must following the formatting guidelines in The Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association (2020), (7th ed.), and  contain, at least, three scholarly/peer-reviewed references, three to five pages of content, and a reference page. In addition, the paper will be submitted through the Turnitin originality-checking tool. 

Paper

 

In a 3- to 5- page paper:

Compare the two typologies of sexual offenders you selected by explaining the following:

  • The motivational differences between the two typologies
  • The expression of aggression in the two typologies
  • The differences in the underlining personality structure of the two typologies

Based on your comparison, explain strategies you would recommend when interviewing the two types of offenders.

Paper

 

  • Write a 2- to 3-page paper:
    • Create a hypothetical task force in response to the threat you selected.
    • Include local, state, and federal agencies.
    • Assign each agency a role in either preventing the threat or responding to an attack. Be specific.
    • Describe the ways each part of your task force will operate to stop the threat.
    • Explain how each part of the task force is integral to its success.
    •  Ken served in Iraq but was discharged after having disagreements with his superiors. He lives alone and is angry at the way illegal aliens are allowed to remain in the U.S. and receive benefits. Ken lets off steam by going into the woods to fire his AR-15. He has recently joined a neo-Nazi organization and attends rallies in support of American rights 

Paper

Guidelines for organization:

You are the HR Manager for a cable company that has recently decided to build a new call center to handle customer service issues. Your company is considering four (4) locations for the call center: Memphis, TN; Montgomery, AL; Jackson, MS; and Baton Rouge, LA. The plans are to initially hire 100 customer service representatives with the potential to hire another 50 representatives within three (3) years of the facility’s opening. You have been tasked to determine which location would be best, developing the customer service representative job description, developing the recruitment program for the position, and determining the selection process, training program and pay structure for the position.

Prepare the synthesis paper using the following guidelines:

  • A minimum of 7 pages, double-spaced, Times New Roman font, using APA standards for formatting
  • Include a title page which features the title of paper, your name, course name and course number, and date of
  • Synthesis papers should demonstrate understanding of the following course topics:
    • External Workforce Assessment
    • Job Description and Job Specifications
    • Recruitment Program and Ads
    • Selection Process (including the type of interview and interview questions)
    • Training Program (including orientation)
    • Pay Structure (including pay survey information)
    • biblical references
  • A reference page
  • A minimum of 10 references are required, including the text, The Holy Bible, books and articles from academic sources (Online Library), and other

Paper

 

ASSIGNMENT CLARIFICATION ASSIGNMENT 4 

 
Week 8 Assignment 4 is due this week it is worth 150 points or 15% of your overall grade in the class. SO READ THIS TO GET A PERFECT GRADE ON THIS ASSIGNMENT.   The grading criteria are as follows as per the rubric. I do not want to read your paper multiple times to pull out the gradable material. This  paper is pretty straightforward. Research the 4 types of Risks. And  write about them in terms of your workplace or a different  organization.  Be sure to include  1. What type of risk it is? (a good definition is needed before you add your workplace or chosen organization information)
2. Ways to help mitigate the risk category. 
Grading is based on the following.   Just make the HEADERS of the paper sections numbered 1-4 (taken  from the grading rubric) and answer each question in order. Make a  reference section at the end in APA format for the minimum of 2  references.  1. Examine Organizations Risks in your workplace or another organization. (31.5 Points) 2. Examine Technical Risks in your workplace or another organization. (31.5 Points) 3. Examine Resource Risks in your workplace or another organization.  (31.5 Points)  4. Examine Schedule Risks in your workplace or another organization.  (31.5 Points) 5. Use at least 3 Quality Resources. (9 Points)  6. Clarity and writing mechanics.  (15 Points)   

    • 20

    Paper

    Instructions

    1. An individual written paper on your paper or video/webinar: (this should be about 2 pages of written text, it can be more depending on your paper and whether or not you do a demonstration of the technique)

    Section #1: will briefly summarize and describe the paper’s objective.

    Section #2: will briefly describe the SAS procedures/techniques (or SAS code) used, provide a description of any examples/applications and perhaps illustrate your own demo of the procedures. If you feel the method is beyond your current skill level you can just describe what they did. Some use of the SAS documentation may be required if the syntax is not well explained in the paper.

    Section #3: will discuss the questions you were asked and your answers to those questions.

    Section #4: will briefly describe why the paper is of interest to you and provide commentary on the paper. The commentary should include some ways the paper could be improved, and some sentences on whether you think this paper and/or technique will be useful to you or a general SAS user.

    The grade will be done based on:

    -Was the paper well written and grammatically correct?

    -Were all sections present?

    -Were written explanations clear?

    -Was a demonstration done if appropriate?

    For Section3 Questions asked and Answers are given are-

    1) What is the objective of using the SAS Forecasting studio for E-commerce data?

    · For large-scale automated forecasting, SAS Forecast Studio is a highly capable system. It has a graphical user interface for users to work with.

    · It performs automatic parameter optimization and model selection, which is a time-consuming procedure in open-source and many other systems that may use the same time series models.

    · Using SAS Forecast Studio reduces development time greatly.

    · This system can easily manage events like public holidays or the yearly spring sale by using the front-end and back-end macros in SAS Forecast Server named PROC HPFEVENTS.

    2) Can you explain the exponential smoothing technique used in this paper?

    · Exponential Smoothing Methods are a family of forecasting models. They use weighted averages of past observations to forecast new values. Here, the idea is to give more importance to recent values in the series. Thus, as observations get older (in time), the importance of these values gets exponentially smaller.

    · The exponential smoothing method produces a time trend forecast

    Reference:
    https://betterprogramming.pub/exponential-smoothing-methods-for-time-series-forecasting-d571005cdf80

    Paper

      The goal of this research project is for students to learn more about international accounting standards. Professional Topic Research Paper Assignment: The purpose of this assignment is for students to research and learn about current topics/issues in international accounting. Students will identify topics in international accounting (Textbook TOC could be used to identify topic), research more about the chosen topic, and write an APA paper on their findings. The discussion and analysis of the paper must be at least 7-8pages  

    Research/find a minimum of at least 10, preferably 5 different peer-reviewed journal articles on your topic from the A University Library online business database. Online reliable resources can be used as well. It is important to check with faculty, if you are not sure about your resources. 3. The article(s) must be current/published within the last five (5) years. (The one exception is for the accounting history of chosen topic – hard to find current articles on the accounting history). 4. Write 7 pages double spaced paper in APA format discussing the findings on your specific topic in your own words. Note – paper length does not include cover page, outline, and references page. Students cannot use quotation marks for this short research project 

    My outline and research topic will be added below.

    • 2 months ago
    • 40

    Paper

    Weekly Assignment – Structure:
    Week 2 – Project Charter: 
    At the end of week two, you are to create and submit the project charter. This is the first official document to be reviewed and approved by the project sponsor.
    The project charter will include the following components:

    · Project title

    · Purpose

    · Description

    · Objective

    · Success criteria or expected benefits

    · Funding

    · Major deliverables

    · Acceptance criteria

    · Milestone schedule

    · Key assumptions

    · Constraints

    · Major risks

    · Approval requirements

    · Project manager

    · Reporting requirements

    · Sponsor designee

    · Approval signatures required

    2nd

    Scope and Schedule: At the end of week 4, you are to finalize the scope from week two and start building the project schedule. In this week, you are also to work on building the project Work-Breakdown Structure (WBS). Project scope and schedule will include the following components:

    – Finalized project scope
    – WBS structure
    – Develop project schedule
    – Identify key milestones and deliverables
    – Outline project resources and assign them to tasks accordingly.
    – Stakeholder engagement – communication plan

    3rd

    Budget and Risk Management: At the end of this week, you are to finalize the overall project cost and clearly document project risks gathered throughout the project. As part of the risk management plan, you are expected to share a risk response plan. Project cost and risk management plans will include the following components:

    – Overall project budget (utilizing EVM – share current and forecasted project status)
    – Project requirements
    – Cost management plan – outlining contingency plan for project changes
    – Risk management matrix
    – Change management process
    – Project RAID (Risk, The assumption, Issues, and Dependencies) 

    4th

    Final week, you are to finalize the overall project management plan (PMP) and to integrate all previously submitted components incorporated with instructor (project sponsor) feedback into a single project management plan. The project management plan will include the following components:

    – Project quality management plan to include an updated scope, cost, schedule, communication, risk, resources, procurement, and quality)
    – Project requirements – updated
    – Stakeholder register – updated
    – How project RAID (Risk, Assumption, Issues, and Dependencies)will be managed
    – Project sponsor approval of the key project deliverables

    Paper

    Data Analysis

    When we look at the many different ways to conduct data analysis, there has to be one that works best for an organization. Research the different methods for conducting data analysis, a place to start is

     
    The Datapine Blog

    ( https://www.datapine.com/blog/data-analysis-methods-and-techniques/ )

    and determine the best method to use for a retail organization. Once you identify the method, conduct additional research to prepare a short justification for the method selected.

    Your paper should be between 400 and 450 words.

    The font is Times New Roman, the font size should be 12, and the paragraphs are single-spaced. There should be a minimum of three references supporting your research. Citations are to follow APA 7.0.

    Paper

    Instructions

    1. An individual written paper on your paper or video/webinar: (this should be about 2 pages

    of written text, it can be more depending on your paper and whether or not you do a

    demonstration of the technique)

    Section #1: will briefly summarize and describe the paper’s objective.

    Section #2: will briefly describe the SAS procedures/techniques (or SAS code) used, provide a

    description of any examples/applications and perhaps illustrate your own demo of the

    procedures. If you feel the method is beyond your current skill level you can just describe what

    they did. Some use of the SAS documentation may be required if the syntax is not well

    explained in the paper.

    Section #3: will discuss the questions you were asked and your answers to those questions.

    Section #4: will briefly describe why the paper is of interest to you and provide commentary on

    the paper. The commentary should include some ways the paper could be improved, and some

    sentences on whether you think this paper and/or technique will be useful to you or a general

    SAS user.

    The grade will be done based on:

    -Was the paper well written and grammatically correct?

    -Were all sections present?

    -Were written explanations clear?

    -Was a demonstration done if appropriate?

    Section 3:

    ● Can you brief me about the industry profiling analysis in this paper?

    Page number 18 in the paper

    ● What approach did you follow to remove negative values while forecasting the number of cases
    per hour?

    Page number 11 in the paper

    Paper

     

    Course Objective:

    • Identify and/or create a business concept for marketplace entry that is suitable for the business plan development stage.

    Instructions:

    Approval for your proposed business idea is required before you begin to develop your proposal. If you researched a company or business in BUSN621, you may continue with that concept to develop a business plan for that company. If not, you must email me your company of choice and a brief description for approval.

    Deliverable:

    • Create a sophisticated PowerPoint presentation (ideally 9+ content pages) in length (not including title slide or References slide) describing your business concept.
    • Include a References slide with a minimum of 3 APA 7th formatted References making sure at least 2 are peer-reviewed. NOTE: Please make sure you properly cite your sources in APA 7th inside your text on each slide wherever applicable.
    • Make sure you include an Agenda slide and Speaker’s Notes on each slide of your presentation.

    In your proposal, include responses to the following questions:

    • Why is it important to write a business plan?
    • What is the purpose of a business plan?
    • What type of business do you plan to open?
    • Why did you choose this business/service?
    • What is your product/service differentiation?

    Paper

    Weekly Assignment – Structure:
    Week 2 – Project Charter: 
    At the end of week two, you are to create and submit the project charter. This is the first official document to be reviewed and approved by the project sponsor.
    The project charter will include the following components:

    · Project title

    · Purpose

    · Description

    · Objective

    · Success criteria or expected benefits

    · Funding

    · Major deliverables

    · Acceptance criteria

    · Milestone schedule

    · Key assumptions

    · Constraints

    · Major risks

    · Approval requirements

    · Project manager

    · Reporting requirements

    · Sponsor designee

    · Approval signatures required

    2nd

    Scope and Schedule: At the end of week 4, you are to finalize the scope from week two and start building the project schedule. In this week, you are also to work on building the project Work-Breakdown Structure (WBS). Project scope and schedule will include the following components:

    – Finalized project scope
    – WBS structure
    – Develop project schedule
    – Identify key milestones and deliverables
    – Outline project resources and assign them to tasks accordingly.
    – Stakeholder engagement – communication plan

    3rd

    Budget and Risk Management: At the end of this week, you are to finalize the overall project cost and clearly document project risks gathered throughout the project. As part of the risk management plan, you are expected to share a risk response plan. Project cost and risk management plans will include the following components:

    – Overall project budget (utilizing EVM – share current and forecasted project status)
    – Project requirements
    – Cost management plan – outlining contingency plan for project changes
    – Risk management matrix
    – Change management process
    – Project RAID (Risk, The assumption, Issues, and Dependencies) 

    4th

    Final week, you are to finalize the overall project management plan (PMP) and to integrate all previously submitted components incorporated with instructor (project sponsor) feedback into a single project management plan. The project management plan will include the following components:

    – Project quality management plan to include an updated scope, cost, schedule, communication, risk, resources, procurement, and quality)
    – Project requirements – updated
    – Stakeholder register – updated
    – How project RAID (Risk, Assumption, Issues, and Dependencies)will be managed
    – Project sponsor approval of the key project deliverables

    Paper

    Conduct a competitive analysis using Porter’s five forces and other major influences. By analyzing factors such as competitors, intensity of rivalry, buyer power, supplier power, and product or service substitutes, you will have a greater understanding of the overall competitive environment. The evaluative results will aid in distinguishing potential partner organizations and foster discovery of possible future collaborative research opportunities.

      : NAICS Code 561320- Office Staffing & Temp Agencies 

    Attached example

    Paper

    System Request: ________________________________________________

    Project Sponsor

    Name(s): _________________________________________________________________________

    Title(s): __________________________________________________________________________

    Business Need – Why is this request being made:

    Business Requirements – What is specifically needed from this system:

    Business Value – how will this benefit the business:

    Special Issues or Constraints:

    Paper

      

    Task: Paper

    TOPIC – Information Systems Security and Emerging Technologies

    The final paper should be a Word document which includes:

    The research paper should be about 4-5 pages, including a cover page and this must be a Word document.

    Include at least three references in APA format. This must be at the end of the Word document.

    Please note:

    SafeAssign/Turnitin is used to check similarity.

    For your paper, it’s acceptable to have a similarity rate that is 20% or below. If it is higher than 50%, a score of 0 will be graded for the project. A rate between (20%~50%) will have an impact on the grading.

    The reference similarity will not have an impact on the grading.

    Paper

      

    Week 5 Application of Theory

    Criminological theory exists to assist persons in gaining insight into crime and criminal justice. Such theories are used to explain the purpose and creation of law, patterns of criminal activity, and the consequences for those who break of the law. Good theories are recognized for their clarity, logical consistency, scope, parsimony, testability, heuristic or practical usefulness, and empirical validity. Theories are created for both macro- and micro-application and can be used in policy making. 

    How to Apply a Criminological Theory to a Case Study

    A case study approach will allow you to apply theories studied in this course to a
    specific crime. You will search online and identify an article about a crime that you find of interest. Next, you will select three theories studied in this course and explain how useful the theory is in explaining the crime committed, the criminal, and the victim(s). Theories to be considered are:

    1) Labeling Theory; 

    2) Social Structure Theory; 

    3) Strain Theory; 

    4) Neutralization Theory; 

    5) Social Control Theory.

    Please follow the following format:

    Introduction: Discuss in general the topic of the paper.

    Description: Provide the specifics of the crime. What is already known about this crime regarding trends, prevalence, incidence, costs to society, and victim-offender relationships? 

    Application of Theory: How useful is each theory you have chosen in explaining the crime? What weaknesses do you see in each theory in its application to explain this specific crime?

    Summary: Which of the three theories, in your view, is most useful in explaining the crime you chose. Next, briefly discuss any implications this theory may have for criminal justice policies. What do you propose the criminal justice system try to do to address this type of crime given the explanatory impact of this theory?

    The sources you may use for this Assignment include the article on the crime you chose, your textbook, and two peer-reviewed journal articles. You must use APA citations. 

      

    • Identify an article about a crime that you find of interest.
    • Select three theories from the following list:
      • Labeling Theory;
      • Social Structure Theory;
      • Strain Theory;
      • Neutralization Theory;
      • Social Control Theory.
    • Review the theories presented in the video Forensic Insights: Theories of Criminal Behavior in your Learning Resources.
    • Review the Learning Resources related to theories

    Paper

     

    For this project, select an organization that has leveraged Cloud Computing technologies in an attempt to improve profitability or to give them a competitive advantage.  Research the organization to understand the challenges that they faced and how they intended to use Cloud Computing to overcome their challenges.  The paper should include the following sections each called out with a header.

    • Company Overview:  The section should include the company name, the industry they are in and a general overview of the organization.
    • Challenges: Discuss the challenges the organization had that limited their profitability and/or competitiveness and how they planned to leverage Cloud Computing to overcome their challenges.
    • Solution:  Describe the organization’s Cloud Computing implementation and the benefits they realized from the implementation.  What was the result of implementing Cloud Computing?  Did they meet their objectives for fall short?
    • Conclusion:  Summarize the most important ideas from the paper and also make recommendations or how they might have achieved even greater success.

    Requirements:

    The paper must adhere to APA guidelines including Title and Reference pages.  There should be at least three scholarly sources listed on the reference page.  Each source should be cited in the body of the paper to give credit where due.  Per APA, the paper should use a 12-point Time New Roman font, should be double spaced throughout, and the first sentence of each paragraph should be indented .5 inches.  The body of the paper should be 3 – 5 pages in length.  The Title and Reference pages do not count towards the page count requirements.

    Paper

     
    Weekly Assignment – Structure: Document 1


    Week 2 – Project Charter: 
    At the end of week two, you are to create and submit the project charter. This is the first official document to be reviewed and approved by the project sponsor.
    The project charter will include the following components:

    · Project title

    · Purpose

    · Description

    · Objective

    · Success criteria or expected benefits

    · Funding

    · Major deliverables

    · Acceptance criteria

    · Milestone schedule

    · Key assumptions

    · Constraints

    · Major risks

    · Approval requirements

    · Project manager

    · Reporting requirements

    · Sponsor designee

    · Approval signatures required

    Document 2

    Summary:

    Scope and Schedule: At the end of week 4, you are to finalize the initially approved scope from week two and start building the project schedule. In this week, you are also to work on building the project Work-Breakdown Structure (WBS). Project scope and schedule will include the following components:

    – Finalized project scope
    – Project requirements – in more details
    – WBS structure
    – Developed project schedule
    – Identify key milestones and deliverables
    – Outline project resources and assign them to tasks accordingly.
    – Stakeholder engagement – communication plan

    Document 3

    Summary:

    Budget and Risk Management: At the end of this week, you are to finalize the overall project cost and clearly document project risks gathered throughout the project. As part of the risk management plan, you are expected to share a risk response plan. Project cost and risk management plans will include the following components:

    – Overall project budget (utilizing EVM – share current and forecasted project status)
    – Project requirements – updated
    – Cost management plan – outlining contingency plan for project changes
    – Detailed risk management plan
    – Risk response plan
    – Risk mitigation plan
    – Change management process
    – How project RAID (Risk, The assumption, Issues, and Dependencies) will be managed
    – Stakeholder engagement – communication plan

    Document 4

    Summary:

    Final week, you are to finalize the overall project management plan (PMP) and to ntegrate all previously submitted components incorporated with instructor (project sponsor) feedback into a single project management plan. The project management plan will include the following components:

    – Project quality management plan to include an updated scope, cost, schedule, communication, risk, resources, procurement, and quality)
    – Updated changes – Change Request (if any)
    – Project requirements – updated
    – Stakeholder register – updated
    – How project RAID (Risk, Assumption, Issues, and Dependencies)
    – Document project lessons-learned
    – Project sponsor approval of the key project deliverables

    Overview:

    This course project introduces an opportunity to explore all the project stages (from inception to closing) facilitated by the well-known Project Management Group Processes (initiation, planning, execution, monitoring and control, and closure) as outlined in the PMBOK® Guide.
     
    Two Project Options:


    1. Data Center Transformation – to complete a migration strategy/plan to complete the following two tasks:
    a. On-Premise Transformation
    b. Infrastructure And Application Migration to The Cloud

    OR

    2. Pick your own project:
    a. Students will have the option to also choose their own project – project scope will need to be approved by the course instructor. 


    Background: 

    As you progress through the weekly materials in the course, you will apply the key principles and knowledge areas (Scope, cost, schedule, quality, resources, risk management, procurement, communication, and stakeholder management) to your project. You will use Microsoft Project software, or other appropriate software including Microsoft Excel to track the entire project management plan (PMP), develop the schedule, and track the overall progress of the project. As the project manager (PM) for a medium-scale project, you will apply fundamental principles and best practices to conduct your project from inception to closing. Each assignment provides further detail
     
    Known Scope:
    The project will address client’s needs to upgrade their 3 existing legacy data centers and migrate eligible applications to the Cloud:
    – Total of 3 primary data centers (2 for Production and 1 for Disaster Recovery)
    – All 3 data centers share redundant WAN circuits (2 MPLS and 1 Point-2Point) for users and data traffic
    – Client has a total of 145 enterprise applications and 1350 servers:
    o   450 Windows Servers
    o   550 Unix Servers
    o   350 ESX, VMWare, and legacy AIX servers
    – Allowed project budget is $1.5 Million with a $150K for contingencies
    – The client is open to the top 3 Cloud providers (AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud)
    – You have the ability to assemble your team
    – Stakeholders are also open to your specific and project needs (define their roles and responsibilities as you see them fit)
    – All 3 Data centers are in the United States – the DR DC must be on a different State for recovery purposes
     
    Requirements:
    – Meet the weekly assignments’ requirements (total of 4 assignments to complete the entire project) within the 8 weeks duration of the course.
    – You will be assigned as the main PM for the project, where you will own the entire project
    – Your course instructor will act at the project sponsor – can address all your questions and concerns and will provide you feedback during the weekly assignments submissions.
    – The project will include internal and external stakeholders, vendors, team members, and contractors.
    – A well-defined project charter must be approved by course instructor by end of week two.
    – Your final project management plan, as well as the weekly submissions, must adhere to the following formatting requirements:
    a. APA version 7 is the required format for the entire paper.
    b. Turnitin tool

    Paper

     

    Technical Paper: Proof of Concept (POC)

    Your company is a 4-year-old startup  called XYZ Software Enterprises. XYZ produces a point of sale system and  was awarded a Proof of Concept (POC) to one of the largest and oldest  restaurants in the industry (you know, the ones in the commercials all  the time). The restaurant wants XYZ to prove that the software will do  what the sales people said it could do. Your Proof of Concept will include four parts: 

    • Part 1: Gantt Chart.
    • Part 2: Testing and User Acceptance Report.
    • Part 3: Use Case Diagram.
    • Part 4: Activity Diagram.

    Part 1: Gantt Chart A Gantt Chart (see page 353, Figure  11-18 in your textbook) needs to be created for the entire process of  the Proof of Concept. There is a two-month deadline from today to  complete the POC. Using Visio or Excel, create a Gantt  Chart that includes all of the items listed below and adds five more  tasks minimum from the concepts learned from the course: 

    • The initial meeting—today.      
      • Should appear as the first line.
    • Teams selected to participate in the project (1 week).
    • Information gathering (add the information gathering methods you will use and how long each will take).
    • System configurations based on information gathering methods (2 weeks).
    • Create Activity Chart based on information gathering (information to create chart supplied).
    • Create Use Case Diagram based on information gathering (information to create chart supplied).
    • Show the finished configurations to the team and get feedback (1 day).
    • Make changes based on feedback (3 days).
    • Install the system in the test store (2 days).
    • Train staff (1 day).
    • Run a live test of POC (2 weeks).

    Note: The five or more  additional tasks can be sub-tasks for information gathering methods as  well some other sub-task or major task not in the initial list.
    You  may add items from the SDLC, specific item or items on testing, or any  other concept you think should be part of the POC process learned in the  course of this semester. Note: Remember that  events in a Gantt chart can happen at the same time as other events.  Some items also cannot start until others are completed. Everything has  an estimated time frame and it is displayed in the chart. Part 2: Testing and User Acceptance Report As part of the expected documentation in the POC, XYZ wants a report on Testing and User Acceptance. Your manager is asking you to research the testing criteria they listed in the POC documents. The POC document states that they are looking for the following: 

    • System and Stress Testing.
    • User Acceptance Testing (UAT).

    For both categories, research and report on the following: 

    1. What these tests are.
    2. Why the industry leader would want these particular tests.
    3. The best ways, in detail, to accomplish the tests so that your company meets the criteria they are looking for.

    These items can be added to your Gantt Chart (Part 1). Part 3: Use Case Diagram The restaurant, as part of the information gathering, outlined a use case in a chart, which is below.
     Your manager assigned you to create the Use Case Diagram using Visio,  MS Word, or any other software. (See the diagrams on Page 84 and 85 of  the textbook.) 

    • Paste the diagram into the created report.

      USE CASE ACTOR   Order Food Waiter, Patron, Chef   Serve Food Waiter   Cook Food Chef   Pay for food Waiter, Patron   Eat Food Patron    Part 4: Activity Diagram As a part of the information gathering process, a chart of items was provided by XYZ. Your manager has asked that you use  Visio, MS Word, or any other software with which you are familiar to  create the Activity Diagram (see pages 138 Figure 5-5 and 139 Figure 5-6  in the textbook.) 

    • Paste the diagram into the created report.

         POS SALES PROCESS           Activity Diagram    Host or Hostess seats patron   Server takes drink order   Server opens order for table in POS system   Server places drink order in the POS system   System sends drink order to the Bar   Bar makes drinks   Server brings drinks to table   Server takes food order   Server adds food order in the POS system   Order goes to kitchen   Chef and staff cook the order   Food Runner brings food to table   Server takes dessert order   Server adds dessert order to POS   Chef and Staff create desserts   Food Runner brings desserts to table   Server creates check in POS   Server collects payment and enters it in POS   Server adds tipped amount to POS   Server closes table in POS    Additionally, you must do the following: 

    • Use at least 3 quality resources. Note: Wikipedia and similar websites do not qualify as quality resources.

    This course requires the use of Strayer  Writing Standards. For assistance and information, please refer to the  Strayer Writing Standards link in the left-hand menu of your course. The specific course learning outcome associated with this assignment is: 

    • Develop a proof of concept of a software system for a potential customer.

    Paper

    Now that we have studied the chapter on  Leading Change in Uncertain Times(Cameron & Green), review your initial reflection. 

    • Elaborate on your initial reflection post, and incorporate some ideas we discussed in class (i.e. FEAR, SHAME, CONTROL, etc..).  For example, how do issues of shame and control relate to the issue of IDENTITY 

    700 words

    Paper

    Inquiry Project

    These are the research questions:

    Title: Early literacy at Home

    · Does parent involvement with reading during early childhood positively effect students reading abilities?

    · How effective is reading with young children?

    · What will work with children before school starts?

    · Does reading to your child before they enter school make a difference in their ability to read?

    Using online resources and/or classroom-based data, you will examine and explore your research questions.

    A minimum of twelve (12) pages based on your in-depth inquiry is assigned. You will present the information from this Assignment as part of Assignment #4 (below). Include a minimum of 15 references in this study. The reference (APA- style) section of this syllabus includes the names of books/articles/search engines that you may wish to consult in addition to the list of journals which follow:

     Appropriate Reference Journals for the Inquiry Project (Literature Review):

    The Reading Teacher

    Reading Improvement

    Reading Research and Instruction

    Research in the Teaching of English

    Reading Research Quarterly.

    Journal of Adolescent & Adult Literacy

    Paper

     

    1. Based on Chapter 7 in your textbook, create a Paper that thoroughly answers in written paper / paragraph format one of the following questions:
      1. What is the long tail? How does the long tail change retail economics? How does it influence shoppers’ choice of where to look for products? What firms, other than Amazon, are taking advantage of the long tail in their industries? OR
      2. How successful have Kindle e-book readers been? How about Fire tablet, Fire TV, and Echo? What barriers does the firm face in competing? What advantages does Amazon have?
    2. The official form and style format for the College of Business is APA. You must use appropriate APA format for citations and references. Using your text book and Library Resources include 2 or 3 resources to support your answers / point of view. Review information to Automatically Format Bibliography in Word (Links to an external site.).
    3. The instructor will be grading the 750+ Microsoft Word paper using the Case Study rubric.

    Paper

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    Paper 1047-2021

    SAS® Time Series Analysis & Forecasting

    (TSAF) at the Canada Revenue Agency
    (CRA), with COVID impacts

    Jason A. Oliver, Senior Compliance Analyst, Canada Revenue Agency (CRA)

    ABSTRACT

    It may well be a recurring theme of this year’s SAS Global Forum that we are faced with
    more pressure to use flexible thinking – not just critical thinking – and when it comes to

    time series analysis and forecasting (TSAF) in SAS, it’s all about “rethinking the curve”.

    At the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) Compliance Programs Branch (CPB), we have
    grappled with reliable forecasting for macro-level tax variables on a month-to-month
    basis, even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit. But now we face a particularly difficult

    challenge. As with many large organizations, it is not easy to foretell what the fallout
    may be from such a cataclysm.

    In setting up SAS to right the trajectory, we must be extra cautious about some of the
    fallacies in applying TSAF in this context: the lagged effect for tax revenues realized
    based on audits of the previous tax year, the need to differentiate average tax recovery

    per case from sum of tax recovery (month-to-month), realizing that industry sectors
    are not “one size fits all”, and accounting for relatively temporary effects of staffing re-

    orientation in the conversion to a virtual workplace versus the more enduring effects of
    business disruptions. With SAS Enterprise Miner’s abilities to continuously adjust
    forecasts, sub-categorize datapoints by tax office or industry sector, and apply lagged

    cross-correlation analysis, we are suitably equipped with the right tools and this can
    provide abstract learnings for other large organizations.

    INTRODUCTION

    The Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) is Canada’s federal tax administration. As with all tax

    jurisdictions, the CRA has been challenged to keep pace with COVID-19 shocks and

    manifestations, which began in March 2020 (the last month of our fiscal year).

    Fortunately, SAS® Enterprise Miner™ has been an invaluable aid in gauging these impacts.

    Enterprise Miner™ includes a highly versatile set of functional nodes for configuring and

    processing time series data. It can decompose time series components such as seasonality

    and trend, show trend lines and expected forecast within configurable prediction intervals,

    and demonstrate complex correlation analyses.

    While this has been of great benefit to the CRA in gauging the trajectory of macro-variables

    related to tax revenues and auditor performance, the findings of this research paper could

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    conceivably be applied in the abstract to large organizations with process-oriented

    functions, and not just to other foreign tax jurisdictions.

    Let us provide a Glossary of terms to set the stage:

     TSAF: Time Series Analysis & Forecasting.

     TEBA: tax earned by audit, which is the amount of tax collectible that is agreed
    upon in the course of a taxpayer audit. It is in NPV (Net Present Value).

     TAR: the tax-at-risk, which is the amount that CRA risk assessors arrive at as
    the precursor to auditing activity.

     C/AR ratio: the ratio of [audit] cases completed, to action requests [submitted]

    for assistance. It is a tentative measure of auditor productivity.

     Integras: the tool used by CRA auditors to process cases.

    TIME SERIES FUNCTIONAL NODES & SETUP

    In SAS® Enterprise Miner™, you have six TSAF nodes in the “Time Series” ribbon; but we’re

    only going to use four of them. Below is the Time Series ribbon with the functional nodes in

    question:

    Figure 1. Time Series Functional Nodes

     TS Data Preparation: this node allows you to specify basic time series properties

    including interval, cycle, start/end time, and accumulation (i.e. by total, min or max,

    mean, etc.)

    o Below, the interval is “automatic”, so we specify “Month” as the interval.

    o We can leave the seasonal cycle and start/end time as “Default”, as SAS®

    Enterprise Miner™ will auto-determine these parts from the data.

    o In our case, the data was pre-accumulated in SAS® Enterprise Guide™ row-

    by-row on a per-month basis, so we can leave Accumulation = “Total” (else,

    we would have to set it “Average”).

    Figure 2. TS Data Preparation node – basic properties

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     TS Decomposition: this node allows you to specify similar basic settings to that of

    the TS Data Prep node, but the Number of Periods can be configured, and moreover,

    you can configure which Export Components you want to display.

    o By default, it will only display “Trend-Cycle” component (=Yes), which is

    generally regarded as the most salient one.

    o However, in our case, we want to view ALL Components, so we would set that

    value to “Yes”.

    Figure 3. TS Decomposition node –properties

    TS Correlation: this node allows you to set up your TSA for autocorrelation analysis, or

    alternatively for CCA (Cross-correlation analysis). When you select one of those methods,

    the other one’s properties will be greyed out.

    Figure 4. TS Correlation node –properties

    Both the TS Correlation and TS Decomposition nodes must be preceded by a TS Data

    Preparation node (which occurs right after the source data node).

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    TS Exponential Smoothing: this node allows you to conduct forecasting based on your

    known data; as such, you would connect it to a TS Data Preparation node, not directly to

    your source data node.

     The interval is automatic (which will be month in the case of our pre-accumulated

    data), and the accumulation defaults to “Total” (which is OK in our case, for the

    same reason).

     SAS will pick what it deems to be the best forecasting method.

     The default selection criterion is MSE, or Mean Squared Error.

     We will see more on the Forecast lead, back, and significance level parameters

    during the forecast demonstration in this paper.

    Figure 5. TS Exponential Smoothing node –properties

    For our initial workspace setup, we can scrutinize on the C/AR (Case to Action Request)

    ratio, which as per our glossary is a tentative measure of tax auditor performance. The

    initial diagram workspace is called “Aggreg_Integras_27mths”, which runs from January

    2018 to March 2020. This is arranged this way for a reason: because it ends on the month

    of the COVID shutdown.

    Our dataset name is “TSA_AGGREG_SINGLE_LINE_27MTHS”.

    So, when I bring this in, I need to set all variables to Role = “Rejected” except a) C/AR ratio

    and b) my MONTH (Time ID) variable.

    Figure 6. Variable Role selection from data source

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    You would set your variables once you bring the data source to your diagram (workspace).

    Figure 7. TS Data Source to Diagram flow

    NOTE: I do not cover the mechanics behind bringing in a data source, as the principal focus

    is on conducting TSAF in SAS® Enterprise Miner™. All we need to be concerned with is that

    as Data Sources become available in the top-left menu, we can drag-and-drop them to our

    diagram workspace (which are also created by right-clicking ‘Diagrams’ in the left panel).

    In examining the TS Data Preparation node, it is fairly simple: we see the known trajectory
    of the C/AR variable, simply by right-clicking the node  Run  Results.

    Figure 8. Time Series Plot, for C/AR ratio variable

    We can see that the C/AR ratio has fallen off as of mid-2018, and continued on a very

    gradual downward path. Which means that case auditors are completing disproportionately

    less cases to the action requests they submit for help, albeit with a seasonal factor and

    some rebounding of the trend-line in March 2020.

    So, we can scrutinize on the more specific components of the time series line by using a TS

    Decomposition node.

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    DECOMPOSITION OF TIME SERIES

    In running our TS Decomposition node, and viewing the results, the first one to examine

    is the Seasonal Component Plot. When it comes to the C/AR ratio, the seasonal index range

    is between a high of about 1.3 down to about 0.75.

    Figure 9. Seasonal Component Plot, for C/AR ratio variable

    During the months of March and December, we see fairly high seasonality. This is normal

    for the time, since the push to complete cases is higher at the end of the CRA fiscal year

    (March), and ostensibly at the end of the calendar year, also. Auditors are completing

    proportionally more cases vs. the number of action requests they submit to the service

    desk. So it is likely that they are fulfilling cases that do not require as many interventions

    during those months. Even in March 2020, C/AR still remained high – it was

    resilient to the initial COVID effects, due to being a ratio variable and not an absolute

    sum variable.

    In the decomposed results, we can also examine combinatory components; for instance, the

    Trend-Cycle Component Plot:

    Figure 10. Trend-Cycle Component Plot, for C/AR ratio variable

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    This tells us what we had surmised from the initial data preparation, that the series has

    been on a steadily downwards trajectory. Now when it comes to tax-related time series

    data, there is no real cycle per se; at best, it is an inherited cycle from world economy

    fluctuations. The proper definition of cycle in a TSA context is not the entity’s operational

    lifecycle; rather, it refers to the boom-and-bust business cycles which are largely

    unpredictable. Ergo, we are mainly concerned about trend here.

    Now, if we substitute the Average TEBA (tax earned by audit) variable for C/AR [using the

    Data Source node shown in figure 6 earlier], we can see what emerges in our decomposed

    time series results.

    Figure 11. Paneled Component Plots, TS Decomp. for Avg. TEBA

    This time, as per the panel graph at bottom-left, we see that our seasonality index is

    broader than that of C/AR ratio; it goes from a high of about 1.8 to a low of ~0.7. This is

    largely attributable to the heightened pressures towards fiscal year-end to increase

    realization of TEBA, which we see in Feb.-March. At the opposite end, we see rather low

    seasonality for May, August, and November.

    For the original series plot, bottom-right, the trend continues gradually upwards with

    seasonality readily apparent. In the trend-cycle component plot, at top-left, we see that the

    trend (with cycle, such as it is) is rising steadily upwards but then reaches a virtual plateau.

    The key challenge then, has been to resolve and reconcile the expected forecast as of March

    2020 with the new COVID-19 realities.

    FORECASTING MACRO TAX VARIABLES

    AVERAGE TEBA

    We can proceed to evaluate the expected trajectory of the AVG. TEBA variable, on a

    monthly interval. Recall that this variable is pre-accumulated at data source.

    When we conduct our forecast, we use the TS Exponential Smoothing node.

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    Figure 12. TS Exponential Smoothing node in the TSAF diagram

    We let SAS® pick the best forecasting method, as well as selection criterion (forecast

    measure). In this case, the latter value is the MSE [Mean Squared Error] as you can see at

    the bottom of the properties of the node.

    Figure 13. Properties of the TS Exponential Smoothing node

    For our Significance Level, we set this to 0.5; it governs the blue bracket around the

    forecast line, a.k.a. the prediction interval. So it is a confidence band of sorts. The way this

    figure works is the opposite of what some of us might know from frequentist confidence

    intervals; that is, the lower the “alpha” value, the wider the band (prediction interval) so an

    “alpha” of 0.01 would produce a very wide band, and an “alpha” value = 0.99 would be

    virtually limited to just the forecast line itself. So we aim in the middle (which actually is

    closer to the outline of the trend line, as this figure is more “log-like” in its manifestation).

    Figure 14. TEBA_NPV_Mean: forecast line from trend

    SAS logically expects the trend will continue upwards (while maintaining seasonality, of

    course) due to “series momentum”. Had we began our time series at, say, January 2016

    rather than Jan. 2018, that momentum might have been more pronounced. The clichés of

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    “future behavior is governed by past behavior” and “you can’t know where you’re going,

    unless you know where you’ve been” have never been truer. However, enter COVID-19,

    and that is a whole new wrench in the gears of the tax-auditing apparatus.

    As for the selection of “Best” Forecasting Method: you could try to experiment with

    different models – there are eight in all, as per fundamental TSAF science – but I can tell

    from the shape of the forecast line that it’s based, appropriately, on the Additive Winters

    method1. I ascertained this by running the node with this method selected, and the

    resulting graph was identical to “best” method. Unlike the Multiplicative Winters method,

    this forecast line is predicated on fairly consistent seasonal “inverted V” shapes in the curve.

    If those inverted V shapes became noticeable larger (or smaller), then Multiplicative Winters

    would likely be the “best” method that SAS would auto-select.

    Figure 15. Available Forecasting Methods, properties of TS Exp. Smoothing node

    We see that in the resulting forecast, it predicts ahead exactly 12 months. This is the

    difference between the figures of “Forecast Lead” and “Forecast Back” in the properties. We

    saw on the previous page that the “Forecast Back” = 6; this acts as our validation partition,

    using the last six months of known data (i.e. Oct. 2019 to March 2020). So this gets

    subtracted from the “Forecast Back” value of 18 to arrive at 12 periods out. Ideally, you

    want your “back” [validation] period to be between 20-25% of your known data, which it is

    out of 27 months; even when we increase the known months to 30, it will still be 20% of

    this.

    SUM OF TEBA

    When we run a TSAF experiment on the SUM of TEBA – as opposed to its average – we

    realize a drastic difference in the scale. Because TEBA is a sum value, not a ratio (i.e.

    C/AR, or [Average] TEBA/case), it is simply not as resilient to sudden shocks like COVID-19

    – as we will later see when adjusting the forecast based on incremental months (April, May,

    June) of known values.

    1 The essence of the Winters method is to combine discernible trend with seasonality.

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    Figure 16. TEBA SUM Forecast (post-March 2020)

    Note that the MSE selection criterion (default) graphs a trend line around the known values

    (which are represented by the red dots here). The SUM TEBA for Feb. 2020 is nearly double

    what it was for March 2020, as you can see by the relatively large separation of the red dots

    from the blue dots (on trendline) for those two months. Yet SAS® “thinks” that the trend

    will continue positively, as it is “COVID-agnostic”.

    What may also seem shocking to the reader is that the lower limit of the prediction interval

    for April 2020 (at ~$674.5M) actually exceeds the actual value for April 2019, which was

    slightly below $500 million. It is not until the fall until we see that the midpoint of actual

    2019 data approximates the LCL (lower confidence limit) of the forecasted band for Sept.

    2020. This is ostensibly due to the “positive momentum” of the time series that I alluded to

    earlier.

    C/AR RATIO

    Next, we switch out the SUM of TEBA for the C/AR ratio, once again. In forecasting a

    relatively low continuous ratio variable such as C/AR, the prediction interval can be less

    reliable. We have to examine the midpoint distribution. While the midpoint post-March

    2020 tends to be at or above the 10.0 line, this is rare for 2019 datapoints.

    Figure 17. C/AR ratio Forecast

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    I used the Mean Relative Abs. Error as the forecast metric (selection criterion), which I

    found to be more appropriate. Regardless, what we see in the actuals for the spring of 2020

    is a very low C/AR ratio, telling us that case throughput has suffered as a result of the

    pandemic AND that Action Requests for help did not decline proportionally; there was still

    an apparent high need for action requests.

    FORECASTING AVG. HOURS PER CASE

    For forecasting average hours per [audit] case, I determined that the more ideal Selection

    Criterion was “Median Relative Abs. Error”. No matter what Selection Criterion I used (or

    Significance Level), the prediction interval still dipped into the negative range. Sometimes,

    this is unavoidable. But then the prediction interval becomes spurious; you can’t have

    negative hours. So we tend to just focus on the midpoint values in this situation.

    Figure 18. Average hours per case Forecast

    We can see that the midpoint goes very subtly upwards for the first few forecasted points

    (post-March 2020), then sharply up for summer. As it turns out, this is a fairly good

    approximation of the reality, since the Avg. Hours per case during the middle of 2020 is

    about 1.5-2.0 times that of the previous year. What is especially pronounced is that the

    Average Hours of March 2019 were only 6.25, whereas for March 2020, it was 35.44. This

    was predicated on an Agency policy-induced change; refer to the link and passage below:

    https://www.mondaq.com/canada/audit/1030308/cra-moves-forward-with-international-audits-
    despite-continued-backlog-?email_access=on

    In March 2020, the CRA announced that it was suspending the vast majority of audit activity for a

    minimum of four weeks, other than audits involving the very largest taxpayers. This suspension meant

    that the CRA ceased requests for information relating to existing audits, finalizing existing audits, and

    issuing reassessments. Further, deadlines for information or document requests were suspended and no

    action was required from taxpayers under audit during this time. This suspension remained in effect until

    June 2020, though audits of small and medium businesses did not resume until late fall.

    This is also arguably responsible for the “pulse” effect we see in actual Avg. TEBA for July

    2020, as per the monthly incremental analysis that comes next.

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    INCREMENTAL ALIGNMENT

    APRIL 2020, KNOWN VALUES

    Now when we add the month of April 2020 to our data (making it 28 mths total), we would

    expect the AVG. TEBA actuals for subsequent months to become closer to / within forecast

    range. As an example in the graph cross-section that follows, the forecast for September,

    October, and December 2020 becomes more within range of later-known actuals, once we

    add April 2020 data. However, the July 2020 actual (~$122,000) is still above the forecast

    band for this incremental dataset’s forecast. This was likely due to the resumption of

    standard large business audit as of June 2020 (see previous page article/passage).

    Figure 19. Revised AVG. TEBA forecast, incremental inclusion of APRIL 2020

    Again, we typically use the measure of MSE [Mean Squared Error] in gauging efficacy or

    proximity of a forecast to actual [values]. See the Appendix tables at the end of this paper

    for a breakdown of this analysis, where I illustrate monthly incremental effect on accuracy

    of the last six months of the calendar year (i.e. from July to Dec. 2020).

    MAY 2020, KNOWN VALUES

    Clearly, the addition of April wasn’t enough to right the trajectory of the expanding “COVID

    window”. So in continuing our analysis of monthly incremental effect, I added May 2020’s

    known data and I changed the forecast significance level from 0.5 to 0.25. But it makes no

    difference: July actual is still out of forecast range. We must simply accept that July 2020

    Avg. TEBA is an irregular value (~$122K), since July 2018 had Avg. TEBA =~$45K, and July

    2019’s Avg. TEBA was ~$57K. It is clear that this is a COVID-adjustment spike.

    Figure 20. Revised AVG. TEBA forecast, incremental inclusion of MAY 2020

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    We can therefore define July 2020 as a pulse, or a one-time brief event, that caused a

    spike in the accumulated time series value for that month. This emphasis on larger

    business for audit while suspending SMB audits at the time is further substantiated by the

    fact that in July 2020, there was an average of 50.75 hrs per case completed, which is

    extremely high. For April, which had a very high Average TEBA of $185.5K, the figure was

    52.16 average hours per case.

    JUNE 2020, KNOWN VALUES

    Predictably, for the addition of June 2020, it didn’t improve the forecast band to include the

    actual Avg. TEBA for July. So this strengthens the theory that July’s value was a one-time

    event, or pulse, in the time series. It also strengthens the theory that Avg. TEBA was more

    resilient to initial COVID-19 transition measures (being a ratio value, in essence). To wit:

    observe below that the April-May-June line for the original forecast (left) and actual data

    points (right) is just above the $50K line, and follows the same trajectory.

    Figure 21. Comparing Q1 of FY2020-21 forecast vs. actual data points

    In taking MSE and RMSE (R is “root”) measurements for both the as-of-March and as-of-

    June forecasts, we only note a slight improvement (reduction) in that value. Which also

    goes to show the resilience of this variable, and the “pulse” nature of July’s spike.

    MEASURE / as of MONTH MARCH 2020 JUNE 2020

    AVG. TEBA (MSE) $ 954,467,257.64 $ 888,454,004.34

    RMSE $ 30,894.45 $ 29,806.95

    Table 1. Point-in-time [R]MSE for AVG. TEBA forecast-to-actual: July to Dec. 2020

    Refer to the Appendix at the end of this paper for a more detailed month-by-month

    breakdown of these calculations.

    FALLACY: COMPARING SUM OF TEBA SHIFT TO AVG. TEBA CHANGES

    TSAF works best when you accumulate data records by average, not by sum total. If we

    tried this exercise using SUM TEBA per month, it would not turn out very well, because sum

    totals are immediately impacted by any severe transition, i.e. auditor work re-arrangements

    and temporary audit case policy due to COVID-19 fallout as of March 2020.

    Evaluating the March 2019-2020 comparison in the following table, the TEBA_SUM and

    Case Count have dropped significantly in March 2020, yet the C/AR ratio has augmented.

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    Table 2. Year-over-Year March comparison, key macro-variables in TSA

    However, as the staffing situation has attempted to stabilize in the intervening months

    (April to June 2020), the C/AR ratio has dropped dramatically. (Not shown in above table.)

    The same is true for the TEBA/AR pattern.

    SUM OF TEBA: DRASTIC CHANGE

    We now compare the SUM TEBA forecast as of March 2020 (left image) and that of June

    2020 known data points (right image).

    Figure 22. Comparison of SUM of TEBA forecast as of March vs. as of June (2020)

    For the first image, none of the actuals of the last six months of 2020 fall in the forecast

    band. Whereas, for the second image, two of the actuals of the last six months (Oct., Nov.)

    fall in the forecast band.

    Also observe how some of the accumulated data points in the forecast are more “depressed”

    in the latter graph; while there is a discernible peak, it doesn’t quite have the same

    buoyancy or upwards momentum as the former graph. (We must keep in mind, though,

    that this is still using the MSE method, i.e. taking a line of best fit, where the red dots are

    the actual values.)

    So, there is little point in using the MSE to gauge efficacy of the monthly adjustment, simply

    because the values would be so huge (as opposed to those in the Avg. TEBA MSE).

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    ADVERSE IMPACTS AND DELAYED EFFECTS

    LATENT EFFECTS OF SHOCKS

    We would also expect that lower Avg. TEBA wouldn’t manifest until much later in the fiscal

    year 2020-21, due to most of 2020 consisting of past year audits. The graph below covers

    known Avg. TEBA trend data points right up to December 2020, the lowest point.

    Figure 23. Calendar-year-end (2020) Avg. TEBA; lowest point

    This extremely low Average TEBA of ~$32,000 per case could be a harbinger of further

    average TEBA decline, but we’d have to observe the last quarter of the fiscal year – January

    to March 2020, once available – and validate that theory. (Then we might apply an

    intervention to the time series line.)

    Incidentally, when it comes to SUM of TEBA with actuals up to Dec. 2020, the forecast trend

    line for 2021 is far more credible, showing all datapoints as being well under $1 billion, and

    mostly under $500 million.

    INTERVENTIONS

    As alluded to before, a TSAF exercise may use interventions, if the extreme or irregular

    event is known in advance (or shortly thereafter). This is an adjustment to the “regular”

    time series, using a “dummy” variable for the period of observation. In this case study,

    we’d recommend an intervention for the SUM of TEBA as of March 2020, and possibly for

    AVG TEBA as of Dec. 2020. Plus, we might use a “pulse effect” for July 2020. However,

    programming an intervention requires SAS® Studio™, which is out of scope for this paper.

    Figure 24. Basic denotation of input variables (interventions) by type

    Lowest actual in 3
    years; Dec. 2020
    Avg. TEBA of $32,404

    A step would work best as an intervention
    (for March 2020 and Dec. 2020), since the
    trend line shift is sudden and sustained; it
    does not happen gradually then return to
    baseline.

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    TS CORRELATION NODE

    AUTOCORRELATION

    When we deal with a significant seasonal and/or trend component, we usually find a greater

    degree of autocorrelation factor (abbreviated “ACF”). As the name suggests, this is the

    tendency of a variable to self-influence. It could also be regarded as momentum, or

    “muscle memory”.

    In a similar vein, when frontline auditing teams are performing well, some of that

    momentum carries over from one period to the next, as they build “muscle memory” and

    are better-equipped to deal with more trying scenarios that have [abstract] aspects in

    common with recent cases worked on. This presents opportunities for “boilerplate” copying

    and pasting of common findings from one case to another, adjusting for specifics, and

    accelerating average time to complete as well as garnering more average TEBA per case.

    Clearly, during the current COVID-19 climate at this writing, and the embargo of SMB case

    audit during the spring 2020 period, we can expect some of that momentum to be adversely

    impacted – since auditors were working on more complex large business cases overall. But

    first, let us examine a baseline from the years 2018-2019, below:

    Figure 25. ACF Plot, three key tax-related macro-variables (2018-2019)

    From the three variables plotted above, Est. TAR-AI (tax-at-risk – audit issue) has low ACF,

    TEBA has moderately high ACF, and Total [Avg. Case] Hours has very high ACF. To wit: at

    lag t=5, TEBA reaches the zero line; but Total Hours is still at ACF=0.45.

    By stark contrast, in 2020 (below), the ACF for both Avg. TEBA and Case Hours is very

    weak overall. In fact, both drop precipitously at the very outset of 2020, just prior to

    COVID-19.

    Figure 26. ACF Plot, same macro-variables, for 2020

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    CCA – CROSS-CORRELATION ANALYSIS

    When we explore lagged effects between risk-related variables – in this case, TAR (tax-at-

    risk) and TEBA (tax earned by audit) – we would use a CCA plot. We are also considering

    Total Hours (on audit cases) here. The plots below are at t=3 months and t=12 months

    out, with the influencing variables on the vertical axis, and the influenced variables on the

    X-axis. The color shading is somewhat counterintuitive, whereby red means more positively

    cross-correlated, and blue means less so. Again, we set a baseline of expectations using

    tax data from 2016 to 2019 (48 months) here.

    Figure 27. CCA Map, at time lags 3 and 12, key macro-variables

    Note the

    Paper

    1

    Paper 1180-2021

    Large-scale demand forecasting for e-commerce retailer using

    SAS Forecast Studio: A Case Study

    Ajay Kumar Mishra, Ph.D.; Mohak Narkhede; Chandu Saladi

    Core Compete

    ABSTRACT

    A leading e-commerce retailer with multiple websites desired to create a systematic,

    scalable and science-driven product forecasting system. We configured SAS Forecast Studio

    for this client on a cloud-based server for automated weekly forecasting of tens of

    thousands of products for the next year. We used SAS for data insights like understanding

    the distribution of product life and rate of sale, variability in demand and prices, as well as

    seasonality among the products. Pre-processing included creating demand history by

    adjusting order history for lost sales using inventory data. Price is an important predictor of

    demand for this retailer. We modeled holiday events using HPFEvents in SAS Forecast

    Server Procedures. With a deep understanding of the patterns in the data for this retailer,

    we configured SAS Forecast Studio including use of test runs to select independent variable

    form, fit criteria, reconciliation, and hierarchy choices. The heterogeneity of the patterns

    ensured that ARIMA and UCM with predictor variables, as well as ESM, Intermittent Demand

    Models and Combined models emerged as winning models for significant portion of

    products. We showed winning models across history of data and rate of sale. Besides using

    several standard reports, we created elaborate accuracy reports including measurement of

    Forecast Value Added. We added steps to identify exception forecasts and replace or modify

    them. The Forecast Studio run was automated using FSCREATE macro.

    INTRODUCTION

    We implemented SAS Forecast Studio at a leading e-commerce retailer with multiple

    websites, for which orders were fulfilled using shared warehouses. The retailer needed

    forecasts at the Style-Color-Size (or, SKU), website, and week level. In this paper, we share

    the details of the implementation. This case study should be useful to data scientists who

    are implementing SAS Forecast Studio for large-scale automated forecasting or forecasting

    managers engaged in such an implementation.

    The retailer did not have any organized forecasting process. Planners were responsible for

    forecasts which was done in Excel. Replenishment decisions were made by them using these

    forecasts. They were evaluated on the replenishment decisions including product

    availability, revenue, and markdowns. The forecasts were not stored and not evaluated for

    accuracy. As a part of their digital transformation initiative, this project was used to create

    systematic, scalable, and science-driven product demand forecasts and a parallel project

    was initiated to use these forecasts for recommendations on replenishment. The goal was to

    equip planners with powerful recommendations to increase product availability and revenue.

    OVERVIEW OF MODULES

    The paper will cover the major modules shown in Figure 1: data repository, pre-processing,

    Forecast Studio, Post-processing, and automation for a weekly production run.

    We implemented SAS Forecast Studio on a dedicated AWS cloud server. All tables from

    client’s various systems came into an S3 bucket and our forecast output were stored in an

    2

    S3 bucket for transfer to destination systems by the client. This entire flow was automated

    using SAS Management Console and Schedule Manager. SAS DI Studio was used for ETL.

    Input files had daily or weekly cadence. A data repository was created for all the data after

    staging, loading, and validating this data. While the data repository included all the data for

    the retailer, categories comprising about 10% of the revenue were in scope for the first

    phase which we were tasked to implement. Relevant data was subset for the forecasting

    system comprising of pre-processing, forecasting, and post-processing stages. We used SAS

    Enterprise Guide to create the SAS codes for these modules and SAS Forecast Studio and its

    backend system called SAS Forecast Server for forecasting.

    Figure 1. Overview of implementation modules

    BENEFITS OF SAS FORECAST STUDIO

    In order to create an automated forecasting system, the retailer looked into many options

    including open-source packages. SAS Forecast Studio is a front end of the forecasting

    system with a graphical user interface (GUI), running on top of a backend engine called SAS

    Forecast Server, which has many powerful and flexible procedures or macros. Some of the

    strengths of SAS Forecast Studio due to which it was chosen are given below:

    • It has a GUI to run and visualize forecasts.

    • A large-scale automated forecasting system can be created using SAS Forecast Studio

    and SAS Forecast Server using the SAS suite of products for data flow, automation, and

    analysis.

    • It fits powerful families of time series models, ARIMAX, Exponential Smoothing (ESM),

    Unobserved Components Model (UCM), Intermittent Demand Model (IDM), and

    Combined. ARIMAX and UCM allow for independent variables.

    • It does automatic optimization of parameters and selection of models, which is a time-

    consuming process in open-source and many other systems which might have the same

    time series models.

    • Using SAS Forecast Studio saves significantly on development time. In the front-end GUI

    of the SAS Forecast Studio there are many options which can be set or selected to

    configure a system. The same options can be selected via programming using FS macros

    like FSCREATE.

    • With easy configuration, SAS Forecast Studio does hierarchical forecasting and

    3

    reconciliation. This is particularly useful in retail.

    • Events like public holidays and major repeating promotions like annual fall sale or annual

    spring sale are easily handled by this system using the front-end and a backend macro

    in SAS Forecast Server called PROC HPFEVENTS. Handling moving holidays for retail

    forecasting is a major development effort for open-source systems which do not handle

    them automatically.

    • In the GUI for SAS Forecast Studio there are several additional features like overrides,

    filters, scenario analysis, standard reports.

    DATA FOR FORECASTING

    Besides sales history, retail forecasting has specific data requirements. In addition, as an e-

    commerce retailer additional data was available. The following are the key data sources

    used in the implementation:

    • Sales history at SKU/Website/Date level was available for more than 2 years. Sales units

    and sales amount were available with additional flags to identify returns.

    • Inventory snapshot was available at SKU/Date level. This helped identify whether a

    customer order can be fulfilled in a few days.

    • Product hierarchy was available to identify the family of each SKU. The product

    hierarchy was SKU (or, Size), Style-Color, Style, Class, Department, and Division. Retail

    forecasting uses location hierarchy as well which in this case was simple, each website

    and all websites. The time hierarchy or retail calendar had day, fiscal week, fiscal month,

    fiscal quarter, and fiscal year.

    • Future price data at SKU/Website/Week level was available for several weeks ahead.

    This could change in the future but in any week, the latest version was available.

    • Website views were available at Style-Color – Website – Week level. This information

    was not available for the future.

    • Clearance flag was available at SKU/Date level.

    • The retailer had SKU segmentation which we used for reporting.

    Product hierarchy was refreshed whenever it was received. For other tables, incremental

    data was received and appended to historical data. This created an up-to-date data lake

    which was useful to the client team’s data scientists for purposes other than forecasting.

    Selected Classes were in scope for the project. Only data for those Classes were filtered and

    sent forward to the forecasting module.

    DATA SUMMARY

    In a typical week around 55,000 series (SKU/Website) needed to be forecasted for the

    Classes in scope for our work. We had 2 years of history for all the series, including those

    which were not active. Most of the series had history of 6-12 months and a fair number had

    less than 6 months of history. About 20% of the series and 50% of the revenue came from

    series with more than a year of history. As shown in Figure 2, weekly rate of sale had a mix

    of high and low rate of sale as well as intermittent demand. On sales variability, a third of

    the series accounting for 50% of sales amount had coefficient of variation of sales units

    below 1. On price variability, a third of the series accounting for 78% of sales amount had

    coefficient of variation of price below 0.5. Finally, there was significant seasonality in the

    sales pattern throughout the year as is common in retail. However, the peak for Black

    Friday was about 4 times a regular week and the 4 weeks covering Black Friday and Cyber

    Monday had about 20% of the annual revenue.

    4

    Figure 2. Rate of sale distribution

    PRE-PROCESSING FOR FORECASTING

    Several tasks were completed in pre-processing steps before the data could be used for

    forecasting in SAS Forecast Studio.

    The client team decided which series were eligible to receive a forecast. We cannot make

    this decision based on activity since some are slow sellers and others might have ended

    their planned life recently. The client defined forecast eligibility at SKU level even though

    the forecasts are made at the SKU/Website level. The criteria were that the SKU’s end date

    must be in the future, the SKU’s first sale date must be in the past, and the product must

    be active, which in turn was defined as having at least one sale in the last 52 weeks. SKU’s

    start date was not deemed reliable enough for this purpose: while 70% of the SKUs had the

    planned start date and the first sale in the same week, for others the planned start date was

    either well ahead of the first sale week or after the first sale week. In a pre-processing step,

    we processed the data so that only the history of items eligible for forecasts went to

    Forecast Studio.

    We created independent variables during pre-processing. Price and Website views were two

    independent variables. Weekly future price of each SKU-Website was available as a feed.

    We processed this feed to create price for each week for which this feed was available. For

    the weeks beyond the feed, the last known price was used. For history, Average Price,

    defined as Sales amount/Sales units, was used since last minute promotions are common

    and the feed may not be reliable for the past. Website views were available at the

    Style/Website/Week level and hence all the SKU/Website/Week had the same value for the

    SKUs which were part of a style. We used 4-week moving average to smooth out views.

    This information was not available for the future.

    The requirement was to forecast non-clearance sales only. We removed clearance sales

    using the Clearance flag available at SKU/Date level.

    Forecast Studio can create complete sales history including weeks for which there might be

    no records since the sales was 0. However, we did it explicitly using SAS code for greater

    control on the process, including some steps in lost sales adjustment described below.

    LOST SALES ADJUSTMENT USING RULES

    Forecasts need to be based on demand rather than sales. For many reasons including out-

    of-stock, sales for a SKU might be low on specific days. If we do not adjust the sales

    upwards, future forecasts will be lower than demand and out-of-stocks will perpetuate.

    However, making meaningful adjustments to sales history is not easy. We used some

    business rules to make these lost sales adjustments at SKU/Website level. We erred on the

    safe side to make adjustments only when there was a strong case. Significant upward

    revision of sales history can lead to over-forecasting. Three-fourths of series had one or

    52%

    41%

    4% 2% 1%

    8%

    23%

    14%

    23%

    32%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    Below 2 2-10 10-20 20-50 Above 50

    %
    o

    f
    To

    ta
    l

    Sales Units per Week

    Weekly Rate of Sale

    % of Series % of Sales Amount

    5

    more dates adjusted. In total we increased sales units by 20% and sales amount by 15%,

    and got buy-in from the client team by showing aggregate adjustments at a Class level.

    We restricted adjustments to scenarios where the stock was 0 and sales was deemed low,

    including zero sales. We flagged out-of-stock dates for each series, using inventory data.

    Products can have continuous sales or be seasonal. Using time between sales as a metric,

    we used no sales for 4 or more months to demarcate distinct seasons; any adjustment was

    made only within a season, not between seasons. We identified dates with 0 or low positive

    values relative to its neighborhood weeks for a SKU/Website as dates with lost sales. We

    excluded such dates in a long stretch of no sales since making adjustments to a large

    number of weeks requires greater analytical complexity than was in scope for this project.

    In addition, we used additional data cleaning steps like minimum inventory and total sales

    in life, to adjust only significant series. We used moving average of previous 14 dates with

    positive sales to get smooth but recent level of sales to make a reasonable estimate of what

    the sales could have been. Finally, we created summaries to check the extent of

    adjustment. Since this rule-based adjustment worked at a SKU/Website level, there was a

    likelihood that many series were simultaneously adjusted upwards for the same set of

    weeks while in reality if all of the SKUs had been in stock, there would be substitution and

    the total sales would not have increased significantly. We fine tuned the rules to ensure that

    adjustments were reasonable and erred on the side of less adjustment. Figure 3 illustrates

    upward adjustment in sales for a sample series. It shows conservative adjustments too.

    Figure 3. Illustration of lost sales adjustment

    CONFIGURATION OF FORECAST STUDIO

    SAS Forecast Studio allows configuration from the GUI but we used matching options in

    FSCREATE macro which can be used in the backend SAS code and batch runs, which was

    useful in automation. Since we had to forecast around 55,000 series, we used one Forecast

    Studio project. In larger implementations, we would have used multiple Forecast Studio

    projects to keep the runtime reasonable and performance of the GUI acceptable; we would

    configure them separately to get the best forecast for each project.

    Sales Units was the dependent variable to be forecast. Price and Website Views were

    independent variables. In addition, events were defined as explained later. Forecasts were

    created for 52 weeks (Lead = 52). Forecast Studio does not have an option to give different

    end dates for each series. If a SKU had end date within those 52 weeks and hence was not

    eligible beyond the end date, in post-processing, we set those forecasts to 0.

    After discussion with the client, we used the following hierarchy for forecasting: Website,

    Department, Class, Style, Style-Color, SKU. This ensured that at the lowest level, there was

    6

    a SKU-level forecast for each Website. The team recognized that SKU-level history would be

    more granular than Style-Color, thus reducing the quality of forecasts. We could have

    forecast at Style-Color/Website level if we had robust size profiles to split Style-

    Color/Website forecast to SKU/Website. Since in history series start in different weeks, as

    more series start, at higher levels it looks as if sales is increasing in time when in reality,

    incremental sales are coming due to greater count of series. Hence, for aggregation we

    chose the Average option which gives average sales per series. Reconciliation across

    hierarchies is an important decision. After conducting trials at various levels, we chose

    Middle-Out reconciliation at Department level. For disaggregation, we chose proportion to

    determine the loss function used for reconciliation.

    SAS Forecast Studio has sophisticated and robust implementations of major families of

    methods in time-series forecasting: ARIMAX, ESM, UCM, IDM, and Combined. This is done

    via its backend engine SAS Forecast Server which comprises of SAS procedures for these

    methods. E.g., HPFARIMASPEC procedure does ARIMAX modeling while HPFESMSPEC

    procedure models the ESM family. Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average, including

    predictor variables (also called ARIMAX) is a powerful family of models which creates

    excellent time series forecasts. It is built to handle typical structures in time series data,

    besides predictor variables. ESM or Exponential Smoothing Model family models time series

    as a function of horizontal level, trend, seasonality. This family includes many variations

    including the simplest form, Simple Exponential Smoothing, and the most general form,

    Holt-Winter. It does not consider predictor variables. It often emerges as a winning method

    when there is significant seasonality, which is usually true at higher levels in the product

    hierarchy like Class or Department. UCM or Unobserved Components Model models time

    series as a function of horizontal level, trend, seasonality, cyclicality, all of which can

    change over time rather than be static. It allows for predictor variables too. IDM or

    Intermittent Demand Models is suited to demand which arises occasionally, i.e., there are

    lots of zeros in history. Finally, Combined has composite models combining two or more

    models. A differentiator for SAS Forecast Server is that for each of these families, SAS

    optimizes the parameters automatically making it efficient for a data scientist on both effort

    and run-time.

    Figure 4. Methods used to create forecasts at the SKU/Website level

    Additional salient settings are listed below. See Forecast Server Administrator’s Guide to

    understand these settings in FSCREATE.

    ARIMAX = YES, ESM = YES, UCM = YES, COMBINE = YES

    MINOBSNONMEAN = 12, MINOBSSEASON = 1, MINOBSTREND = 12,

    CRITERION = MAPE

    INTERMITTENT = 2, SEASONTEST = 0.02, DETECTOUTLIERS = YES, MAXNUMOUTLIERS

    = 2, MAXPCTOUTLIERS = 2

    TRANSTYPE = NONE

    ALLOWNEGATIVE = NO

    7

    For choosing several settings we conducted controlled test runs to compare between

    options. For fit, we compared in-sample vs hold-out sample, and in-sample fit won. For

    accuracy criterion, MAPE won over RMSE. Among transformation options, None was a

    winner over either Boxcox or Auto, where Auto picks log or none. We explored modeling

    average price as a discount but retained price as the format for the predictor variable.

    Holidays or major annual promotion events have a significant impact on retail sales. When

    these move to different fiscal weeks year over year, it is an analytical challenge to estimate

    the lift due to the holiday and apply it in the right week in the future, for high forecast

    accuracy. Easter is a common example. Since it moves across years and is usually

    significant for retail forecasts, the Easter effect needs to be applied in the correct week in

    the future. When holidays do not move, they are captured by seasonality and do not require

    special modeling effort. The flexibility in event modeling is a major advantage in SAS

    Forecast Server. Forecast Studio allows specification using the GUI but upload of holiday file

    gives more flexibility in modeling holidays. We used HPFEVENTS procedure from SAS

    Forecast Server to create an external event repository for use with Forecast Studio. Sample

    definition of an event is shown below. There are several holidays in the library, like

    Thanksgiving for the U.S., stored as keywords which can be used directly; for others dates

    must be given. In this example Black Friday is specified as a temporary correction which

    grows starting two weeks before the week of Thanksgiving with peak in the week of

    Thanksgiving, given as maximum amplitude of Value = 1, 0.75 in the week before and

    (0.75)2 = 0.5625 in the preceding week.

    EVENTDEF BlackFriday = THANKSGIVING/ TYPE=TC BEFORE=(DURATION=2

    SLOPE=GROWTH ) TCPARM=0.75 PULSE=WEEK VALUE=1;

    Visualization of forecasts in SAS Forecast Studio is excellent. We saw that hierarchical

    reconciliation improved the accuracy significantly, particularly for series with less than 12

    months of history; reconciliation gave much better shape to such series.

    POST-PROCESSING AND ACCURACY REPORTING

    SAS Forecast Studio creates forecasts using the data created in pre-processing steps, as per

    the configuration given in the section above. Outputs are stored in a large number of output

    tables, for each level of hierarchical forecast. We added some post-processing steps before

    formatting the output in the format desired by the client for downstream applications.

    Statistical forecasting methods sometimes create values which seem odd and require

    exception handling. We checked for Size/Website/Week level exceptions like missing values

    or unreasonably high values and Size/Website level exceptions like extreme values or

    unexpected number of zeros. We replaced exceptions with rule-based forecasts using recent

    level and seasonality index.

    Forecast output needed prediction errors which are part of the output from SAS Forecast

    Studio. Mostly the prediction errors were reasonable relative to prediction mean, which are

    the forecasts. Large prediction errors usually occurred when the forecasts were small. We

    used prediction error analysis and capping to adjust them.

    We noticed that some series do not have price variation in history due to which forecasts

    like those driven by Exponential Smoothing family or insignificant predictor variable in

    ARIMAX, would ignore price change in the future. We added price-based adjustment of

    forecasts. If price variation in history was low, we adjusted the forecasts using Class-level

    price elasticity given by the client. An example is in Figure 5 below. Price variation in history

    was not significant but in the forecast period there was a sharp drop. Our adjustment

    increased the forecast.

    8

    Figure 5. Price-based adjustment of forecasts

    CUSTOM ACCURACY REPORTING

    We enabled standard reports which are in-built in SAS Forecast Studio. Custom accuracy

    reports for review by forecasting analysts and business leaders were part of the

    requirements. We created a module on accuracy that ran after creating forecasts. It used

    past forecasts and newly available actual sales to create accuracy metrics, and output

    formatted tables in Excel using SAS code.

    In consultation with the client, Weighted Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), weighted

    by revenue was chosen as the primary metric. We added bias and mean percentage error

    too. MAPE was calculated at the Size/Website level but reported at Department level as a

    weighted metric. While we created forecasts for the next 52 weeks, for accuracy

    assessment the horizon chosen was 4 weeks. We used 4-week ahead forecasts, taken

    cumulatively and compared it with actual for those weeks. These decisions were suitable

    because supply chain and replenishment decisions from domestic fulfillment had lead time

    of 2-4 weeks and decisions used demand over multiple weeks rather than focus on a

    specific week.

    We reported Forecast Value Added as well to show improvement in accuracy over simple

    forecast created using 4-week moving average or last-year’s value, if it was available. This

    simple metric was highly effective for short-term forecasts but our model driven forecasts

    showed improvement of 5 to 10% in Weighted MAPE over the simple forecast. Forecast

    Value added increased as trend, seasonality, and association with price increased.

    We made the accuracy measurement report meaningful by judging model performance

    fairly. We made two adjustments in consultation with the client team. We defined price error

    as a scenario where actual Average Price varied by more than 5% from the price given to

    the model and dropped it for accuracy reporting. We defined availability error as the

    scenario where an item was out-of-stock, in which case forecasts would exceed actual and

    hence should not be used in measurement. While these adjustments dropped 20%-40% of

    the series, the metric was meaningful for the end users to assess the efficacy of the

    forecasts.

    We added cross-tabulations of MAPE buckets with magnitude of actual sales units, product

    life length, weekly rate of sale, and client’s product segmentation. E.g., we saw that

    weighted MAPE was higher than normal when the actual units were less than 10. This was

    reassuring to the client team since being off significantly on small numbers is not as big a

    concern as high errors when the actual units are high. As we would expect, MAPE was lower

    when product life length was longer or rate of sale was higher.

    CONCLUSION

    In this paper, we presented a case study on how we implemented SAS Forecast Studio for

    an e-commerce retailer. SAS Forecast Studio is easy to configure using GUI and matching

    FS macros for automated batch runs. It fits important families of forecasting algorithms,

    9

    with automatic parameter optimization. Analysts can tune a Forecast Studio project for

    better forecasts by trying various combinations of configuration settings. Automatic handling

    of hierarchical forecasting, reconciliation, and events makes the project efficient and

    improves quality of forecasts. Using SAS programming, pre-processing and post-processing

    can be done in a flexible manner to meet client’s business requirements and improve

    adoption.

    RECOMMENDED READING

    • Brenda Wolfe, B., M. Leonard, and P. Fahey, Introducing SAS® Forecast Studio Paper

    193-30, Proceedings of SAS Global Conference SUGI 30

    • Leonard, M., Large-Scale Automatic Forecasting: Millions of Forecasts, SAS White Paper

    • Looking Inside SAS® Forecast Studio, SAS White Paper

    • Forecasting 101: How to Get More Accurate Forecasts With Less Cost and Effort, SAS

    White Paper

    • Forecast Value Added Analysis: Step by Step, SAS White Paper

    • SAS Forecast Studio 15.1: User’s Guide

    • SAS Forecast Server Procedures 15.1: User’s Guide

    • SAS Forecast Server 15.1: Administrator’s Guide

    CONTACT INFORMATION

    Your comments and questions are valued and encouraged. Contact the author at:

    Ajay Kumar Mishra

    Core Compete, 5001 South Miami Blvd., Suite 410, Durham, NC 27703

    Ajay.Mishra@CoreCompete.com

    www.CoreCompete.com

    SAS and all other SAS Institute Inc. product or service names are registered trademarks or

    trademarks of SAS Institute Inc. in the USA and other countries. ® indicates USA

    registration.

    Other brand and product names are trademarks of their respective companies.

    Paper

     

    • Select one of the three podcasts to analyze for the Assignment:
      • Death in the Family
      • Eye See You
      • Nowhere to Hide

    By Day 7

    In a 3- to 5-page paper:

    Evaluate whether the primary offender in the podcast has a mental illness or a personality disorder. Support your evaluation with behavioral evidence. Explain whether the offender’s action could lead to an insanity defense. Why or why not?

    Support your rationale with references to the Learning Resources and other academic sources.

    Paper

    Please write a minimum of four pages APA formatted paper.  

    Provide explanation and analysis by answering the following questions”. 

    Please provide at least six (6) peer-reviewed resources in support of your arguments. 

    • What competitive advantages do you believe Starbucks seeks to establish? What are the main challenges the firm faces as it tries to maintain the advantage or advantages you identified? 
    • Please research about Starbucks Inc. and identify three or four capabilities you believe Starbucks possesses. Please explain your opinion if any of these capabilities are considered as core competence and justify your reasoning.
    • Starbucks’ mission is “To inspire and nurture the human spirit—one person, one cup and one neighborhood at a time.” According to your research and (may be personal experience as well) what actions do you recommend the firm take to reach this mission?
    • Please read about Starbucks’s new chief executive officer Kevin Johnson. Do you believe he is a strategic leader? What would be your recommendations to the CEO in terms of challenges he is facing in strategic management? 

    Paper

     

    Write an 8- to 10-page interview strategy that includes the following:

    • A summary of the murder case you selected
    • An analysis of the offender’s personality, including any personality disorders or comorbidity that may be present
    • An explanation of how aggression, attachment, and empathy factor into the offender’s personality
    • An explanation of how “state” versus “trait” factors into the case
    • Recommendations for the interview, including the following:
      • Selection of the interviewer
      • Environment of the interview
      • How to manage the interviewer’s response
      • Description of how to ask the interview questions

    Paper

     

    ZOOM

    GOVT 200
    ECONOMICS ANALYSIS ASSIGNMENT INSTRUCTIONS
    OVERVIEW
    For this assignment, you will write a 2–3-page paper (double-spaced, 1-inch margins) providing
    at least 1 example of how government has overstepped biblical principles in some form of
    economic policy. Be sure to adhere to the format specified in the Course Style Guidelines
    document.

    Options include the following topics:
     A specific piece of legislation relating to business regulation or taxation.
     The “party platform” of either the Republican Party or the Democratic Party (or both).
     The role of the Federal Reserve.
     The budget process.
    In discussing one of these topics, incorporate clear references from the Learn material in the
    assigned Module: Week.
    INSTRUCTIONS
    Follow the below instructions to compose your assignment:
     Length of assignment – 2-3 pages.
     Make sure to include a bibliography page
     Format of assignment – Course Style Guidelines
     At least 2 sources
     Acceptable sources – Scholarly articles published within the last five years, the Bible,
    online articles given as assignments, and any other pertinent source that helps the student
    answer the assignment prompt.   

    Note: You may submit your assignment to the Economics Analysis: Draft Submission
    Assignment to check your paper for plagiarism. Your assignment will be checked for originality
    via the Turnitin plagiarism tool. After reviewing your Turnitin results, make any edits necessary
    and submit your Economics Analysis: Final Submission Assignment.
     

    Paper

    Problem:

    In years to come, the industrial internet of things (IIoT) could significantly increase productivity and slash costs across manufacturing, transportation, logistics, energy, and other industries. Because of the multitude of connected devices and vast volume of data produced by the IIoT, as well as the possibility of combining IIoT with AI technologies (AI enables companies to analyze this volume of data) to enable “smart” machines that simulate intelligent behavior, organizations must address the future privacy concerns of their stakeholders, employees, and customers.

    How can your organization, a major player in healthcare and fitness technology, implement a strategic plan to address privacy concerns?

    paper

    Optimizing the SHA256 Hashing Algorithm in Bitcoin

    Md Toheen Bhuiyan

    Bhargavi Munagala

    Manisha Reddy Madireddy

    The security of bitcoins is completely dependent on SHA-256 in future quantum computers. Due to the many drawbacks in SHA-1 and MD5, people would see the benefit in changing the bitcoin public key, which is not vulnerable to quantum computers. [1] In cryptography system bitcoin with SHA 256 make a stronger connection in Bitcoin payment system. Bitcoin is a digital money and payment system built on established cryptographic technologies that operates without the need for a central administration, as traditional currencies do. The influence of quantum computing on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general has been debated for a long time.[2]

    As digital technology advances, security concerns grow. The SHA-256 algorithm was developed to address these concerns. hash algorithm is playing a main role in today’s applications, which require a more secure physical implementation separate from the main processor, which generates high performance compared to software implementation. Due to its high-speed processor, it is very challenging to implement.[2]

    The Economist, a renowned newspaper, explained bitcoin in April 2013. is here to stay, that it is the payment system of the future, and refers to it as “digital gold” [14]. This occurred at a time when the total value of bitcoins in circulation has surpassed $1 billion. Bitcoin has become a widely accepted financial instrument. At the minute of login, hash capacities can be utilized to authenticate clients. The passwords are spared within the shape of a message process to avoid getting to indeed by Database Directors (due to Hash digest’s Pre-Image resistance). The message process of the entered watchword is computed and compared to the process put away within the database at whatever point a client tries to login and enters a watchword. In case it matches, the client has effectively logged in; else, the client has not been authenticated. [3].

    The SHA-256 algorithm is highly secure and is used by US government agencies to protect sensitive information. Due to three qualities, such as the fact that extracting the original data from the hash is extremely difficult, this is referred to as a “high-secured method.” To crack the hash value, a brute force attack requires 2256 attempts. The second point to mention is that there aren’t many collisions. The final one is that if a little change is made to the actual text, it changes the hash values, which causes an avalanche effect because the new hash value isn’t visible. [4]

    SHA-256 is mainly used due to its no collisions till now, like no two different messages having the same hash function, and it also performs efficiently. The entire input message will be divided into small chunks, and then each chunk will depend on the previous one. [5]

    Refrences

    [1] Louis Tessler2,6 and Tim Byrnes State Key Laboratory of Precision Spectroscopy, School of Physical and Material Sciences,East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, ChinaNew York University Shanghai, 1555 Century Ave, Pudong, Shanghai 200122, ChinaNYU-ECNU Institute of Physics at NYU Shanghai,3663 Zhongshan Road North, Shanghai 200062, China National Institute of Informatics, 2-1-2 Hitotsubashi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-8430, Japan Department of Physics, New York University, New York, NY 10003, USA CEMS, RIKEN, Wako-shi, Saitama 351-0198, Japan.

    [2] Suman, Rajiv Ranjan, Bhaskar Mondal, and Tarni Mandal. “A secure encryption scheme using a Composite Logistic Sine Map (CLSM) and SHA-256.” Multimedia Tools and Applications (2022): 1-22.

    [3] Nicolas T. Courtois1, M. G. (March, 2019). Optimizing SHA256 in Bitcoin Mining. 14.

    [4]Courtois, N. T. (April 10,2014). The Unreasonable Fundamental Incertitudes. arXiv:1310.7935v3 [cs.CR], 48.

    [5] H. Bensalem, Y. Blaquière and Y. Savaria, “Acceleration of the Secure Hash Algorithm-256 (SHA-256) on an FPGA-CPU Cluster Using OpenCL,” 2021 IEEE International Symposium on Circuits and Systems (ISCAS), 2021, pp. 1-5, doi: 10.1109/

    [6] R. Wu, X. Zhang, M. Wang and L. Wang, “A High-Performance Parallel Hardware Architecture of SHA-256 Hash in ASIC,” 22nd International Conference on Advanced Communication Technology (ICACT), pp. 1242-1247, doi: 10.23919/ICACT48636.2020.9061457.

    Paper

     

    Network Security Paper: In this paper, you will define the security strategies of Defense in Depth and Layered Security along with comparing and contrasting the strategies by explaining, at least, two advantages and disadvantages of implementing each security strategy. 

    Required Section Headings:

    • Introduction
    • Defense in Depth
    • Layered Security
    • Advantages and Disadvantages
    • Summary/Conclusion

    Remember to support your statements with factual information (i.e., attribution/citations). In addition, material from the course textbook or the textbook’s author(s) cannot comprise more than 25% of the sourced and/or quoted material.

    The paper must following the formatting guidelines in The Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association (2020), (7th ed.), and contain , at least, three scholarly/peer-reviewed references, three to five pages of content, and a reference page. In addition, the paper will be submitted through the Turnitin originality-checking tool. 

    Paper

     

    In a 3- to 5-page paper:

    • Identify and explain features in the primary offender that are consistent with Cluster A personalities.
    • Explain how these features differ from features that characterize Cluster B personalities.
    • Explain crimes that Cluster A personalities are more likely to commit.
    • Explain three challenges of working with individuals with Cluster A personalities and recommend strategies for overcoming those challenges.
    • Recommend at least three strategies to implement when interviewing offenders with Cluster A personalities.
    •  Case Study #1 Jim, a 48-year-old engineer, works at a medium-size engineering firm. He has been employed with the firm for 16 years. He is described by co-workers as serious and thin-skinned, having no sense of humor, and distrusting of others. He lives alone, does not socialize with his neighbors, and often engages in angry accusations of something the neighbors or their children did that caused him distress or offended him in some way. He holds grudges forever, seemingly holding on to every real or perceived slight he has ever experienced. Jim is constantly writing letters to the utility company, city officials, and his congressional leaders about the injustices constantly inflicted upon him. 

    PAPER

    PHYSICAL AND COGNITIVE DEVELOPMENT IN MIDDLE CHILDHOOD

    CHAPTER 9

    Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

    *

    Learning Objectives

    *

    • Explain: These are the questions we will consider as we explore physical and cognitive development during middle childhood.

    PHYSICAL DEVELOPMENT

    *

    The Growing Body

    Slow but steady…

    • Height changes
    • Weight changes
    • Only time in lifespan when on average girls taller than boys
    • Variation in heights up to 6 inches not unusual

    *

    • Height
    • While they are in elementary school, children in the United States grow, on average, 2 to 3 inches a year. By the age of 11, the average height for girls is 4 feet, 10 inches and the average height for boys is slightly shorter at 4 feet, 9 1/2 inches. This is the only time during the life span when girls are, on average, taller than boys. This height difference reflects the slightly more rapid physical development of girls, who start their adolescent growth spurt around the age of 10.
    • Weight
    • Weight gain follows a similar pattern. During middle childhood, both boys and girls gain around 5 to 7 pounds a year. Weight is also redistributed. As the rounded look of “baby fat” disappears, children’s bodies become more muscular and their strength increases.

    Cultural Patterns of Growth

    Influences

    • Sufficient or insufficient nutrition
    • Disease
    • Genetic inheritance
    • Familial stress

    *

    Should hormones be used to make short children grow?

    *

    • Growth hormones given to abnormally short children; Idiopathic short stature (5th percentile for height)

    Ask: What do you think? What contributed to your answer? In all instances? Under what conditions? Whose decision is it?

    • Ask: Is being short a social disadvantage?

    Artificial Hormones: Points to Consider

    • Currently taken by thousands of children with insufficient natural growth hormones
    • Costly
    • Some side effects
    • Long-term studies of usage not available

    *

    • Growth producing hormones relatively new
    • Protropin

    Growth hormones are released from the anterior pituitary gland. Pituitary adenomas can produce excess growth hormones. This can cause abnormal growth patterns called acromegaly in adults and gigantism in children. Excess growth hormones can increase blood pressure and blood sugar.

    Individuals with resistance to growth hormones or known pituitary disease may not produce enough growth hormones. In children this can cause short stature. In adults, insufficient growth hormones can lead to changes in muscle mass, cholesterol levels, and bone strength.

    Nutritional Benefits

    • Children who received higher levels of nutrients had more energy and felt more self-confident than those whose nutritional intake was lower.
      What policy implications does this finding suggest?
      (Source: Based on Barrett & Radke-Yarrow, 1985.)

    Benefits of Adequate Nutrition

    Relationship to social and emotional functioning

    • More peer involvement
    • More positive emotions
    • Less anxiety
    • More eagerness to explore new environments
    • More persistent in frustrating situations
    • Generally higher energy levels
    • (See Guatemalan study, Barrett & Frank, 1987)

    *

    Test of the speed and accuracy of response on problem-solving tasks given to children who did or did not eat breakfast  skipping breakfast had an adverse influence on their performance on the tests (Pollitt et al. 1991)

    Consequences of Inadequate Nutrition

    Undernutrition is implicated in more than half of all child deaths worldwide

    Undernourished children

    • Lowered resistance to infection
    • More likely to die from common childhood ailments and respiratory infections
    • Frequent illness that impacts growth

    *

    • Check series of UNICEF films related to global malnutrition, education, and children.
    • See UNICEF website for fact sheet: http://childinfo.org/areas/malnutrition/

    What would Ugly Betty’s life be like in a real elementary school?

    *

    • Before beginning these questions, be especially sensitive to students in class who may be directly affected by this discussion. Be prepared to help students who may inadvertently disclose painful recollections of their early school years as obese children.
    • Encourage students to answer the question. Ask: what do you think are the underlying causes of eating disorders in middle childhood?

    Obesity

    • Most common causes:
    • Genetic factors
    • Lack of physical activity
    • Unhealthy eating patterns
    • Combination of these factors
    • Only in rare cases is being overweight caused by a medical condition such as a hormonal problem

    *

    • In fact, concern about weight can border on an obsession, particularly among girls. For instance, many 6-year-old girls worry about becoming “fat,” and
    • Some 40 percent of 9- and 10-year-olds are trying to lose weight. Why? Their concern is most often the result of the U.S. preoccupation with being slim, which permeates every sector of society
    • Children become overweight for a variety of reasons: genetic and social

    In the United States over the past 20 years, obesity has increased by 54 percent in 6 to 11 year old children and by 39 percent among 12 to 17 year olds.

    Costs of Childhood Obesity

    • Obese children
    • More likely to be overweight as adults
    • Greater risk of heart disease, diabetes, and other diseases

    *

    In fact, some scientists believe that an epidemic of obesity may be leading to a decline in life span in the U.S.

    Figure 9-2 Obesity in Children

    Obesity in children from ages 6 to 12 has risen dramatically

    over the past three decades.

    The other side of “fat”

    • Even very young children are aware of society’s fixation on thinness
    • Lowered self-esteem has been associated with being overweight in girls as young as 5
    • Attitude was closely correlated with parents’ perceptions

    *

    Balanced Diet?

    Recent studies have found that the diet of children is almost the opposite of that recommended by the U.S. Department of Agriculture,

    a situation that can lead to an increase in obesity.

    The typical 10-year-old is 10 pounds heavier

    than a decade ago.

    (Source: USDA, 1999; NPD Group, 2004.)

    Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

    *

    MOTOR DEVELOPMENT

    *

    Gross Motor Skills

    Gross motor skills developed by children between the ages of 6 and 12 years.

    Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

    *

    Do boys and girls differ in motor skills?

    Gender differences in gross motor skills became increasingly pronounced during middle childhood

    • Boys outperform girls
    • Little or no difference when equal participation in exercise/activities
    • Influenced by societal expectations

    *

    • American Academy of Pediatrics suggests that boys and girls should engage in the same sports and games, and that they can do so together in mixed-gender groups. There is no reason to separate the sexes in physical exercise and sports until puberty, when the smaller size of females begins to make them more susceptible to injury in contact sports.

    Fine Motor Development

    • Necessary for wide range of school-related tasks
    • Influenced by increase in amount of myelin speeds up electrical impulses between neurons

    *

    • Six- and 7-year-olds are able to tie their shoes and fasten buttons; by age 8, they can use each hand independently; and by 11 and 12, they can manipulate objects with almost as much capability as they will show in adulthood.
    • Myelin, which insulates nerve fibers, contains only 18% protein and 76% lipid.

    Health and School-agers

    Middle childhood is period of robust health

    • Routine immunizations have produced considerably lower incidence of life-threatening illnesses
    • More than 90 percent of children in middle childhood have at least one serious medical condition but most are short term illnesses

    *

    • For most children, this is a period of robust health, and most of the ailments they do contract tend to be mild and brief. Routine immunizations during childhood have produced a considerably lower incidence of the life-threatening illnesses that 50 years ago claimed the lives of a significant number of children.

    Asthma

    About asthma

    • 15 million US children
    • Periodic attacks of wheezing, coughing, shortness of breath
    • Theories about increased incidence
    • Increased air pollution
    • More accurate diagnosis
    • Exposure to “asthma triggers”
    • Poverty

    *

    • Up to 80 percent of kids with asthma develop the condition before they turn 5 years old.
    • One of the most puzzling questions about asthma is why more and more children have been suffering from it over the last two decades. Some researchers suggest that increasing air pollution has led to the rise; others believe that cases of asthma that might have been missed in the past are simply being identified more accurately. Still others have suggested that exposure to “asthma triggers,” such as dust, may be increasing, because new buildings are more weatherproof—and therefore less drafty—than old ones, and consequently the flow of air within them is more restricted.
    • Poverty may play an indirect role. Children living in poverty have a higher incidence of asthma than other children, probably due to poorer medical care and less sanitary living conditions.

    Asthma brings different challenges for school-age kids. A child might feel embarrassed using an inhaler at school, for example, or worry about having an asthma attack in front of friends.

    There are two main types of medications available to treat asthma. Inhaled anti-inflammatories or “controller” medicines are used to prevent asthma flare-ups.

    During an asthma attack, the muscles around the airways tighten, or “spasm” (like when you make a fist) and the lining inside the airways swell or thicken, and get clogged with lots of thick mucous. This makes the airways much skinnier than usual so it is harder to move air in and out of the air sacs. This makes it hard to breathe!

    Other Health Risks

    • Accidents
    • Motor vehicles
    • Bikes
    • Fires and burns
    • Drowning
    • Gun-related deaths
    • Reduced by use of seatbelts and helmets

    *

    • Auto crashes annually kill 4 out of every 100,000 children between the ages 5 and 9. Fires and burns, drowning, and gun-related deaths follow in frequency.

    Figure 9-5 Injury Death Rates by Age

    During middle childhood, the most frequent causes of accidental death are transportation-

    related. Why do you think transportation-related deaths soar just after middle childhood? (Source: Borse et al., 2008.)

    PSYCHOLOGICAL DISORDERS

    *

    Identifying the Problem

    • Psychological disorders in children overlooked for years
    • Incidence
    • Symptoms inconsistent from those of adults
    • Antidepressant drugs used for treatment have never been approved by governmental regulators for use with children

    *

    • One in five children and adolescents has psychological disorder that produces at least some impairment.
    • About 5 percent of preteens suffer from childhood depression
    • Thirteen percent of children between 9 and 17 experience anxiety disorder

    Drugs As Treatment

    FOR

    • Depression and other psychological disorders treated successfully using drug
    • More traditional nondrug therapies that largely employ verbal methods simply are ineffective

    AGAINST

    • Long-term effectiveness of antidepressants with children not known
    • Use of antidepressants on developing brains and long-term consequences more generally not known
    • Correct dosages for children of given ages or sizes not known

    *

    • Some observers suggest that the use of special children’s versions of the drugs, in orange- or mint-flavored syrups, might lead to overdoses or perhaps eventually encourage the use of illegal drugs.
    • Some evidence linking the use of antidepressant medication with an increased risk of suicide.

    Depression

    • Key defining features of major depressive disorder in children and adolescents are same as they are for adults
    • Way symptoms are expressed varies with developmental stage of child

    *

    Children with Special Needs
    Sensory Difficulties: Visual, Auditory, and Speech Problems

    *

    • The Law and Exceptional Students: Over twenty years ago, President Ford and Congress passed a law that made provisions for exceptional children and adults to be educated in public schools. The law covered ages three to twenty-one and required an extensive evaluation.
    • Individuals with Disabilities Education Act: IDEA has been considered the “Bill of Rights for Handicapped Children.” This act expanded the age range of PL 94-142 to include infants and twenty-two year olds. This act also emphasized family involvement.
    • Understanding Inclusion: Inclusion states that there is a commitment to educate all children to the maximum extent possible for the institution and the educator. Inclusion states that disabled children benefit from being with non-disabled children, even if they are not on their academic level.
    • Funding Special Education Programs: The Federal Government should pick up forty percent of the cost of special education programs, according to the 1975 special education law. In previous years, the Federal Government has paid for less than ten percent of the programs. Most of the cost of these programs are picked up by state and local governments through taxes.
    • Parents of Special Children Working with the School: The parents of disabled children should play a vital role in their child’s education. PL 101-476 is the law that guarantees parents’ participation in the decision making process of their child’s education. It is the parents’ responsibility to make sure the child’s rights are being protected.

    Do you see what I see?

    Difficulties in seeing

    • Blindness (20/200 after correction)
    • Partial sightedness (20/70 after correction)

    *

    Visual impairment happens when there is a problem with one or more parts of the eyes or the parts of the brain needed to process the images sent from the eyes.

    Although many people think blindness means a person can’t see at all, this isn’t always true. Some children who are considered blind can still see a little light or shadows, but they can’t see things clearly.

    • Diabetes
    • Macular degeneration (scarring in middle area of retina)
    • Glaucoma (Your eyes are filled with a thin fluid called aqueous humor. The fluid is made in the back of the eye, where it then passes through to the front and drains through tiny holes called outflow channels. When something stops the flow of this fluid, pressure builds up inside the eye, causing problems with vision)
    • Cataracts are cloudy spots in the eye’s lens that block light and change vision. Babies can be born with cataracts, but they usually affect older people and not kids. No one knows what causes them, although too much sunlight exposure over the years may cause cataracts to form at a younger age in adults.
    • Even if a person is not so impaired as to be legally blind, their visual problems may still seriously affect their schoolwork. For one thing, the legal criterion pertains solely to distance vision, while most educational tasks require close-up vision. In addition, the legal definition does not consider abilities in the perception of color, depth, and light—all of which might influence a student’s educational success. About one student in a thousand requires special education services relating to a visual impairment.

    The behaviors of children with CVI reflect their adaptive response to the characteristics of their condition

    • Children with CVI may experience a “crowding phenomenon” when looking at a picture: difficulty differentiating between background and foreground visual information.
    • Close viewing is common, to magnify the object or to reduce crowding.
    • Rapid horizontal head shaking or eye pressing is not common among children with CVI.
    • Overstimulation can result in fading behavior by the child, or in short visual attention span.
    • The ability of children with CVI to navigate through cluttered environments without bumping into anything could be attributed to “blind sight”, a brain stem visual system.
    • Children are often able to see better when told what to look for ahead of time.
    • Children with CVI may use their peripheral vision when presented with a visual stimulus, appearing as if they are looking away from the target.
    • Some children look at an object momentarily and turn away as they reach for it.

    Say what?

    • Loss of hearing or some aspect of hearing
    • Affects 2 percent of school-age children
    • Varies across number of dimensions

    *

    • Hearing losses affect a significant number of people, and range from a slight to a very severe loss. Very few people with hearing impairments are totally deaf; most have some degree of residual hearing.
    • Some people with hearing impairments benefit from the use of amplification. However, in the majority of cases, even when a sound is amplified loud enough to be heard, the sound quality is affected; the sound may still be unintelligible.

    People with hearing impairments communicate in a variety of ways, depending on several factors: amount of residual hearing, type of hearing impairment, language skills, age when the impairment began, speech abilities, speech-reading skills, personality, intelligence, family environment, and educational background.

    Children Who Do Not Hear

    • Children with speech-language impairment have an impairment of their speech and/or language structures and functions
    • Parts of the body used in speaking and understanding – the brain, nerves, mouth and throat – may be damaged or not developing or working properly
    • Level of speech-language impairment can range from mild to severe
    • Impairment may be obvious before school or not show itself until the child has difficulty learning at school

    *

    A severe speech-language impairment may result in one or more of the following:

    • The child not being able to speak
    • Having speech that is very hard to understand
    • The child having great difficulty making sense of speech sounds
    • The child not always being able to understand others
    • The child not being able to say what he or she wants.

    I Am Talking to YOU!

    Definition

    • Impairment of speech articulation, voice, fluency, or the impairment or deviant development of language comprehension and/or expression
    • Impairment of use of spoken or other symbol system that adversely affects educational performance

    *

    The language impairment may be manifested by one or more of the following components of language: morphology, syntax, semantics, phonology, and pragmatics;

    • Severe and early loss of hearing is also associated with difficulties in abstract thinking. Because hearing-impaired children may have limited exposure to language, they may have trouble mastering abstract concepts that can be understood fully only through the use of language than concrete concepts that can be illustrated visually.

    Stuttering

    • Substantial disruption in rhythm and fluency of speech
    • Most common speech impairment; 20 percent of all children go through stage
    • No clear-cut answers to the causes of stuttering

    *

    No clear-cut answers to the causes of stuttering

    Genetics

    Neurophysiology

    Child development

    Family dynamics

    Learning Disabilities
    Discrepancies Between Achievement and Capacity to Learn

    • Difficulties in acquisition and use of listening, speaking, reading, writing, reasoning, or mathematical abilities
    • 2.8 million children in US
    • Dyslexia, dysgraphia, dyscalculia
    • ADD/ADHD

    *

    LD is a disorder that affects people’s ability to either interpret what they see and hear or to link information from different parts of the brain. These limitations can show up in many ways: as specific difficulties with spoken and written language, coordination, self control, or attention. Such difficulties extend to schoolwork and can impede learning to read, write, or do math.

    The Brains of Children With ADHD

    The brains of children with ADHD (in the top row) show less thickening of the cortex compared to the brains of typical children at the same age.

    (Source: Shaw et al., 2007.)

    Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

    *

    The Basic Definition in Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA)

    “Learning disability” = umbrella term

    *

    DISORDERS INCLUDED- Such term includes such conditions as perceptual disabilities, brain injury, minimal brain dysfunction, dyslexia, and developmental aphasia.

    DISORDERS NOT INCLUDED- Such term does not include a learning problem that is primarily the result of visual, hearing, or motor disabilities, of mental retardation, of emotional disturbance, or of environmental, cultural, or economic disadvantage.

    Developmental Reading Disability

    Dylexia affects 2 to 8 percent of elementary school children

    • Reading difficulties
    • Inability to separate sounds in words
    • Problems sounding out words

    *

    When you think of what is involved in the “three R’s” -reading, ‘riting, and ‘rithmetic- it’s astounding that most of us do learn them. Consider that to read, you must simultaneously:

    Focus attention on the printed marks and control eye movements across the page

    Recognize the sounds associated with letters

    Understand words and grammar

    Build ideas and images

    Compare new ideas to what you already know

    Store ideas in memory

    Developmental Writing Disabilities

    Writing involves several brain areas and functions (dysgraphia)

    • Brain networks for vocabulary, grammar, hand movement, and memory must all be in good working order
    • Developmental writing disorder may result from problems in any of these areas

    *

    For example, a child with a writing disability, particularly an expressive language disorder, might be unable to compose complete, grammatical sentences

    Developmental Arithmetic Disability

    • Arithmetic involves recognizing numbers and symbols, memorizing facts, aligning numbers, and understanding abstract concepts like place value and fractions
    • Any of these may be difficult for children with developmental arithmetic disorders, also called dyscalculia

    *

    Problems with number or basic concepts are likely to show up early

    Disabilities that appear in the later grades are more often tied to problems in reasoning.

    What are the most common signs of ADHD?

    • Persistent difficulty in finishing tasks, following instructions, and organizing work
    • Inability to watch an entire television program
    • Frequent interruption of others or excessive talking
    • Tendency to jump into a task before hearing all the instructions
    • Difficulty in waiting or remaining seated
    • Fidgeting, squirming

    *

    • Because there is no simple test to identify whether a child has ADHD, it is hard to know for sure how many children have the disorder. Most estimates put the number between 3 to 7 percent of those under the age of 18.
    • Only a trained clinician can make an accurate diagnosis following an extensive evaluation of the child and interviews with parents and teachers

    Diagnostic Criteria

    Behaviors must:

    • Be excessive, long-term, and pervasive
    • Appear before age 7, and continue for at least 6 months
    • Create a real handicap in at least two areas of a person’s life, such as school, home, work, or social settings
    • Be different than “normal” distractibility or overstressed lifestyle prevalent in our society

    *

    ADHD Treatment Controversy

    Ritalin or Dexadrine reduce activity levels in hyperactive children and are routinely prescribe

    • Effective in increasing attention span and compliance BUT side effects considerable and long-term health consequences unclear
    • Help scholastic performance in short run BUT long-term evidence for continuing improvement is mixed

    *

    Overprescribing Ritalin?

    The number of children being given drugs for psychological disorders has increased significantly over the last decade.

    (Source: U.S. Surgeon General, 2000.)

    *

    34.bin

    Are there other treatments for ADD/ADHD?

    Treatments

    • Behavioral therapy
    • Diet
    • Other?

    *

    • With behavior therapy, parents and teachers are trained in techniques for improving behavior, primarily involving the use of rewards (such as verbal praise) for desired behavior. In addition, teachers can increase the structure of classroom activities and use other class management techniques to help children with ADHD, who have great difficulty with unstructured tasks.
    • Because some research has shown links between ADHD and children’s diet, particularly in terms of fatty acids or food additives, dietary treatments have sometimes been prescribed. However, dietary treatments are usually insufficient by themselves.

    Keeping Children Fit

    • Make exercise fun. Gear activities to the child’s physical level and motor skills.
    • Encourage the child to find a partner. Start slowly.
    • Urge participation in organized sports activities, but do not push too hard.
    • Don’t make physical activity, such as jumping jacks or push-ups, a punishment for unwanted behavior.
    • Provide a healthy diet.

    *

    Make exercise fun. In order for children to build the habit of exercising, they need to find it enjoyable. Activities that keep children on the sidelines or that are overly competitive may give children with inferior skills a lifelong distaste for exercise.

    Be an exercise role model. Children who see that exercise is a regular part of the lives of their parents, teachers, or adult friends may come to think of fitness as a regular part of their lives, too.

    Gear activities to the child’s physical level and motor skills. For instance, use child-size equipment that can make participants feel successful.

    Encourage the child to find a partner. It could be a friend, a sibling, or a parent. Exercising can involve a variety of activities, such as roller skating or hiking, but almost all activities are carried out more readily if someone else is doing them too.

    Start slowly. Sedentary children—those who aren’t used to regular physical activity—should start off gradually. For instance, they could start with 5 minutes of exercise a day, 7 days a week. Over ten weeks, they could move toward a goal of 30 minutes of exercise 3 to 5 days a week.

    Urge part

    paper

    Statement of Purpose and Objectives*

    Your statement should should describe your past experience as it relates to your interest in public health, career goals, purpose for applying to the program, and how the program will serve future goals. Applicants should not plagiarize and must cite any sources used.

    Paper

    Watch the video below on the work of Robert Sapolsky who studies stress (this is a short version; if you want to see the entire video, you can find it here https://youtu.be/ncYMV4DXCMU . Begin your paper by defining stress in your own words and discussing your reaction to the video.

    2. Complete the  Life Experiences Survey

     and consider the stressful events you have encountered in the previous two year period. 

    3. Interview your family members and find out which stress-related disease(s) you are most at risk for. Here is a link to a WebMD page that discusses 10 stress-related diseases:  https://www.webmd.com/balance/stress-management/features/10-fixable-stress-related-health-problems#1

    4. Research and locate one article on stress and whatever disease you are most at risk for (select a study on research conducted on humans) from a reputable academic source:

    Reputable Sources:

    • journal articles
    • government publications based on research

    Do not use:

    • magazines of any sort, whether they are on paper or online
    • Websites of any type, including epigenetics websites
    • Wikipedia

    How to Perform Your Research

    • Use the College Library in person or online (log in with your new MDC ID number (the one that is all numbers). Your password is the last four digits of that same MDC ID unless you have changed it.

    Read the stress article you find. Continue your paper with a discussion of the stress article. Be sure to paraphrase (put things in your own words) and be sure to cite the author(s) of the article you find using APA style (see the section below on using APA style). Aim for about a page for this part of your paper.

    5. Discuss the concept of stress in light of your family history and the article you read. Aim for one page for this section of your paper. Here are some topics you can discuss. You are not required to discuss these but they may be useful to you: 

    How do you create stress in your own life?

    How could you change the nature of our society to make it less stressful?

    It could be said that some stress comes from leading “out-of-balance” lives. What can people do to “keep it simple”? Furthermore, in what ways can individuals control the stressors they will encounter beforehand?

    How could you change the way in which you interact with your school demands or your work demands to change the amount of stress that you feel?

    6. Discuss how you can improve your health and longevity in light of your findings on this assignment, your understanding of stress, and your knowledge of your family history. This should be your final page.

    You can go over or under a page for any of the sections of the paper as long as your total paper is 1,000 words not counting the references.

    General Rules for an “A” Paper (check your paper against this list) 

    ◻    1,000 words

    ◻    Original work; plagiarism score of less than 10% (90% original work)

    ◻    Double-spaced, 12-point font, 1-inch margins

    ◻    Covers all 6 tasks

    ◻    Spell-checked

    ◻    College-level grammar

    ◻    Cite your article APA style (author & year within the body of the paper; full reference at end)

    ◻    No abstract, no cover

    ◻    Place your name and reference number on the first page. Use page numbers.

    Paper

      

    Week 4 Assignment – Group Practice Operations Plan Part 1

    Overview

    Physician practices are a key component of the U.S. health care system. As a future health care administrator, it is important for you to demonstrate an understanding of the challenges and opportunities that today’s physicians face in providing quality health care services.

    Scenario

    You are a newly licensed physician and have been hired to lead a small group practice. This is a new role for you, and you have decided to do some research and develop an operations plan to guide you in managing the practice and leading the staff.

    Instructions

    Part 1:

    Develop Part 1 of 4 for an operations plan, Parts 2–4 will be completed in Weeks 6, 8, and 10 assignments. Part 1 of the operations plan should be 3–4 pages and include at least three quality academic resources in which you:

    • Assess a minimum of two organizational forms in a medical group practice and summarize your findings.
    • Select the organizational form will you use for this practice and justify your selection.
    • Explain how you will transition from the existing practice form to the form you have selected.
    • Develop three organizational goals as the new leader of the practice include constraints you may experience working towards those goals.
    • Explain the role human resources management (HRM) will play in the physician practice, including attracting employees, employee retention, labor and employment laws, and compensation plans.
    • Examine the role nursing will have in the restructuring of the practice.
    • Develop a marketing strategy that includes three aspects of consumer behavior that should be considered and support your response.

      • 20

      Paper

      In this assignment, you are to use the same corporation you selected and focused on for the Strategic Management and Strategic Competitiveness assignment.
      Using the corporation you chose from the Week 3 assignment, Strategic Management and Strategic Competitiveness, examine the industry in which the entity operates. Use any or all of the following resources to conduct research on the company:
      • Company website.
      • Public filings from the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Filings & Forms page.
      • Strayer University’s online databases.
      • The Lexis Advance database.
      • Other miscellaneous sources. Note: the company’s annual will often provide insights that other resources may not include.
      Use the External and Internal Environments Template [DOCX] to ensure that your assignment meets the requirements.

      Requirements

      Write a 4-6 page paper in which you do the following:
      • Choose the two segments of the general environment that would rank highest in their influence on the corporation you chose.
        • Assess how these segments affect the corporation you chose and the industry in which it operates.
      • Considering the five forces of competition, choose the two that you estimate are the most significant for the corporation you chose. 
        • Evaluate how well the company has addressed these two forces in the recent past.
      • With the same two forces in mind, predict what the company might do to improve its ability to address these forces in the near future.
      • Assess the external threats affecting this corporation and the opportunities available to the corporation.
        • Give your opinions on how the corporation should deal with the most serious threat and the greatest opportunity. Justify your answer.
      • Give your opinion on the corporation’s greatest strengths and most significant weaknesses.
        • Choose the strategy or tactic the corporation should select to take maximum advantage of its strengths, and the strategy or tactic the corporation should select to fix its most significant weakness. Justify your choices.
      • Determine the company’s resources, capabilities, and core competencies.
      • Go to the Strayer University Online Library to locate three quality references. Note: Wikipedia and similar websites do not qualify as academic resources.
      • a month ago
      • 15

      Paper

       

      Motivating Employees

      Consider your current employer or a previous employer as a point of reference, and your are the department head.

      According to research, everyone is motivated differently. For this activity, I want you to take into consideration the following generations and how you would motivate them (Baby Boomers, Generation X, Generation Y, and the Millennial). This activity will require you to conduct a little research on these generations (a little research meaning for you to just get an understanding of each in a superficial manner). Then, based on your findings, identify how you would motivate each of these generations to be successful in the workplace

        • 5

        Paper

        Week 3 Assignment – Strategic Management and Strategic Competitiveness

        Overview

        Choose a public corporation, with which you are familiar, from one of the following industries:
        1. Travel.
        2. Technology.
        3. Food.
        Research the company on its own website, public filings on the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Filings & Forms page, Strayer University’s online databases, Strayer University’s Lexis Advance database, and any other sources you can find. The annual will often provide insights that can help address some of these questions. Use the Strategic Management and Strategic Competitiveness Template [DOCX] to ensure that your assignment meets the requirements.

        Requirements

        Write a 4-6 page paper in which you address the following:
        • Assess how globalization and technology changes have impacted the corporation you researched.
        • Apply the industrial organization model and the resource-based model to determine how your corporation could earn above-average returns.
        • Assess how the vision statement and mission statement of the corporation influence its overall success.
        • Evaluate how each category of stakeholder impacts the overall success of this corporation.
        • Use the Strayer University Online Library or the Internet to locate and include at least three quality references. Note: Wikipedia and similar websites do not qualify as academic resources.
        • This course requires the use of Strayer Writing Standards. For assistance and information, please refer to the Strayer Writing Standards link in the left-hand menu of your course. Check with your professor for any additional instructions.
          The specific course learning outcome associated with this assignment is the following:
          • Determine the impact of globalization and technology changes, strategic models, vision and mission statements, and stakeholders on a corporation’s success.
        • a month ago
        • 10

        Paper

          

        Information-Gathering Techniques

        Create a for your Manager on Information-Gathering Techniques. Gathering information for a new system  is important and sets the tone of the development cycle. If not done  thoroughly, the project could be a failure before it begins. You are the Project Manager of XYZ  Enterprises. Your manager gives you the task of researching the  different techniques used to gather information as the company is going  to replace their Case Management System. He would like a of all  the different type of information gathering listed below. For each  technique, give reasons to use it and the best ways to accomplish using  each information-gathering method. 

        • Interviewing users and stakeholders.
        • Distributing and collecting questionnaires.
        • Observing and documenting business procedures.
        • Collecting active user comments and suggestions.
        • Researching vendor solutions.

        This course requires the use of Strayer  Writing Standards. For assistance and information, please refer to the  Strayer Writing Standards link in the left-hand menu of your course. The specific course learning outcome associated with this assignment is: 

        • Research the techniques used to collect and gather information for the design of a new system.
        • 20

        Paper

        Write a two-page paper, plus the title page and a reference page on the following statement:

        Research and find a cold chain technology that is being used to ensure safe and healthy foodstuffs within a retail business of your choice. What federal regulations must be followed to ensure such safe and healthy food in that cool supply chain?

        Written Communication: Written communication is free of errors that detract from the overall message.
        •APA formatting: Resources and citations are formatted according to APA (7th edition) style and formatting.
        •Length of paper: typed, double-spaced pages with no less than a two-page paper.
        •Font and font size: Times New Roman, 12 point.